Think levels not numbers

March 29, 2022

Think levels not numbers … We kind of got ourselves tied up in knots at times maybe overthinking which players should go where based on their numerical ranking when updating our 3-round projection over the weekend and we had to keep reminding ourselves that NFL teams themselves generally rank players in rows or levels with roughly equivalent draft grades rather than simply numerically. So we decided to put together our own value board to complement the GBN Big Board which does rank players 1 thru 250 these days. Along the way, we made a number of observations. Firstly, it doesn’t appear that there are necessarily any sharp breaks at least early in the top ten range. We do have three players – Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson, Georgia DE Travon Walker and NC State G/T Ickey Ekwonu – in the first level, but the fact is that nobody will be shocked if any of the players in what we called Level 1A – Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Georgia DT Jordan Davis, Alabama OT Evan Neal and Cincinnati CB Sauce Gardner – go top three next month. Heck it wouldn’t be a total shock if at least one of the four went first overall. There is, though, a somewhat clearer break between Levels 2 and 3. The second level, though, is also an interesting group. A case could be made, for example, that Georgia DT Jordan Davis and Florida State DE Jermaine Johnson could just as easily have been placed in Level 1A with the only real difference being that they are maybe somewhat less likely to go top three. We also slipped QBs Malik Willis of Liberty and Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, the top passer prospects this year whose numerical ranking may not be quite that high, into Level 2 as there is a generally accepted rule around the NFL that if you like a QB and you need a QB then you throw the BPA book out the window and take the guy if you get the chance. We also dithered about putting WRs Drake London of Southern Cal and Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson into Level 2 but in the end, positional value these days made it worthwhile. Again, its not a perfect measurement tool, but it may be a more realistic way to view this year’s draft class. And of course we could have gone on, but you get the idea.