The 2022 NFL season is just three weeks old, but already we have a pretty idea as to which teams are the likely contenders for this year’s Super Bowl title. Not so much yet, though, for which team will ultimately get the first pick at next April’s draft. For now, if the draft were held this week, Las Vegas, the league’s only still winless team, would have the top pick general consensus is that the Raiders have too much time to be stuck near the bottom of the standings for all that long.
So which teams are the betting favorites, alongside all NFL odds, to have the #1 pick once the season has played itself out later this year. Of course, no odds are 100% certain. Nevertheless, based on various relevant factors, here are the top teams with good odds of securing the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft:
Houston Texans +300
With +300 odds, the Texans have the top spot for the most likely team to make the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This prediction is not far-fetched as the Houston Texans have consistently been among the weakest teams in recent years. It was especially the case last season, which resulted in the team securing the third pick at the 2022 draft. And after a 0-2-1 start it appears that its going to be another rough year in Houston. While they are starting to build a foundation and have had a good offseason, the team remains the most likely to finish bottom of the NFL and end up with the first pick.
Atlanta Falcons +400
The Falcons are clearly in a year of transition. Over the past year, they traded long-time veteran QB Matt Ryan to Indianapolis, while WR Calvin Ridley is out with an indefinite suspension. They do have some exciting young talent including TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, and CB A.J. Terrell, their #1 picks in each of the past three drafts, but there isn’t much talent through the rest of the roster and new QB Marcus Mariota is clearly just a placeholder until they can find a true replacement for the venerable Ryan.
New York Jets +500
The Jets did put an early win on the board with an improbably comeback in Cleveland, but weren’t all that competitive in home losses to both Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Jets also hope the offense picks up with the return of QB Zach Wilson, who missed the start of the season with a knee injury. But he’s going to need some help, and there really isn’t a whole lot on this roster, although they also have some talent to build with including CB Sauce Gardner and WR Garrett Wilson, the 4th and 10th picks respectively at the 2022 draft. And playing in the suddenly tough AFC East isn’t going help; neither is having one of the best players on defense fighting with the coaches on the sidelines!
Seattle Seahawks +700
The Seahawks made the off-season’s biggest splash – and it was big – when they traded long-time star QB Russell Wilson away to Denver for a passel of picks. And it looked like they may be outright tanking after naming veteran Geno Smith, the prototype journeyman QB, to replace Wilson. However, Smith has played very well so far this year, although time will only tell whether he can maintain that pace. Otherwise it’s still pretty much the same team which only won only 7 games last fall even with Wilson posting another solid season. Of course, the Seahawks could end up with the #1 pick anyway as no team has both a bigger need at QB and more draft capital to get to the top of the board if a trade possibility is available.
Chicago Bears +850
Da Bears are off to a decent start with a couple of wins in their first three games thanks in large part to a solid run game and physical defense. But QB Justin Fields has averaged less than 100 yards per game passing thru those first three weeks and it’s not clear in this day and age that one can win a lot of games in the NFL with that formula.
Conclusion
Uncertainty is the only consistent theme in the NFL. That’s particularly apparent this year in which parity has reigned over the first weeks of the campaign. While the teams listed above are currently in good position to take the top pick in the 2023 draft, things can change over the next several months depending on injuries, trades and upset along the way. If nothing else it should be an interesting ride to see which team gets to make the first pick of the promising prospects in the 2023 draft class.
