Reading the Tea Leaves; Part III

April 11, 2016

Interesting week shaping up with the draft now just 17 days away. San Francisco, which looks like the most likely team to try and trade up with Tennessee to acquire the top pick in this month’s draft, will have both of QBs Carson Wentz of North Dakota State and Cal’s Jared Goff in for on-site visits this weekend. In fact, Goff doesn’t even count against the 49ers’ allotted visits because he’s considered to be a local prospect and teams can have as many as those in as they want. However, there is some doubt around the league whether the 49ers are even seriously considering whether to actually try and move up from the 7th pick to get one of these guys. The 49ers are known to prefer to stockpile picks rather than move them and it will cost them plenty to move up, especially if it is a deal with Tennessee to acquire the #1 pick which would cost them at least their 1st round picks this year and next, as well as several other picks including a second this year. The 49ers could acquire an extra seconder to help them along the way if that deal to send veteran QB Colin Kaepernick to Denver is ever actually consummated. However, that deal is very much on hold right now as the two teams stare down one another over who is going to pay what from Kaepernick’s guaranteed contract.

There are also conflicting reports about what Dallas intends to do with the #4 pick. It has been widely thought from the day the season ended that the Cowboys wanted to add a top young QB as a potential replacement for oft-injured incumbent starter Tony Romo who is now in his mid-thirties. And the Cowboys have done as much due diligence on all the top QB prospects including Wentz and Goff, both of whom they have worked out privately AND had in for visits which has led to speculation that Jerry Jones might be tempted to make a splash and go after the top pick overall. However, there were published reports over the weekend that the Cowboys actual target if they did move up would be Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey, whom Dallas has the #1 player on its board. In the end, though, it just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Cowboys to trade away multiple picks to take a defensive back they have a pretty good chance of landing at #4 anyway. At the same time, it also really doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Cowboys to use the highest pick they have had in several years to take a QB unless they have a contingency plan to move Romo sooner rather than later. Bottom line is that if Romo did stay healthy and productive over the next 4-5 years as Jones has predicted, then the Cowboys would have used the #4 pick overall on a player who never plays. Indeed, as has been noted before, the Cowboys are more likely to select the best player available at #4 and then use a second-day pick on a second-tier QB like Dak Prescott of Mississippi State or Connor Cook of Michigan State.

While there is some intrigue brewing over the #1 pick and the top-rated QBs, there is an almost as interesting emerging story later in the first-round involving Memphis QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch was kind of the mystery man when it came to 2016 QB prospects, but seems to have solidified a first-round grade with a solid pro day workout last week. Indeed, it seems unlikely that Lynch would get by the LA Rams (still trying to get used to that one) who have the 15th pick. The problem for the Rams, though, is that all of a sudden it’s no longer a lock that Lynch actually makes it to the 15th pick. Buffalo, which picks 4 slots after the Rams, is thought to be interested, and the Bills have not been hesitant to move up to get their guy in the past. Denver could also be in the mix if the Broncos aren’t able to complete the deal with the 49ers for Kaepernick. As well, nobody should be shocked at this point if Dallas (see above) jumped back into the 1st round to get a shot at Lynch. Stay tuned.

And speaking of QB prospects, there is an interesting piece on the history of selecting QBs in the draft in the Canton Repository which may give Cleveland, which has the #2 pick overall, and needs a passer as much as anybody some pause.

The other major draft-related event this week are the medical rechecks scheduled for Indianapolis on the 14th and 15th at which players with significant injuries, including LBs Jaylon Smith of Notre Dame and UCLA’s Myles Jack, will be re-evaluated. Others likely to be back at the combine site later this week are Clemson DE Shaq Lawson, Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell, Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd, Virginia Terch CB Kendall Fuller, West Virginia S Karl Joseph, Utah RB Devontae Booker, Arizona LB Scooby Wright and Washington OLB Travis Feeney among others. Needless to say, what those final medical reports say will have a major bearing on these players ultimate draft status.