THE Giants draft preview … We took a break from posting the Giants Report this winter to try and figure out where we want to go with the whole concept – and for the record, we’re still working on it – but we’ve had a whole lot of thoughts about the Giants and the 2022 draft swirling about in our head and thought it would be potentially informative to write them down.
First, let’s reiterate one more time the essence of the draft. It’s a crapshoot; it’s a lottery; it’s like flipping coins! And when we say it’s a crapshoot, it’s a lottery; it’s like flipping coins we mean that indeed it’s like a crapshoot; it’s like a lottery; it’s like flipping coins. And while the NFL goes to great lengths to try and make an activity which is almost totally random and unpredictable, rational and predictable, the fact of the matter is that when it comes to the draft nobody really knows very much for sure.
This year, for example, there are 10-12 very good prospects and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out who they are. And the odds are that 3-4 of those guys are going to be very good NFL players; 3-4 are going to be JAG types and 3-4 are going to be busts. Happens every year! But there is no one in the NFL community, not Joe Schoen, not Bill Belichek, not Mel Kiper, not Daniel Jeremiah, and certainly no one here at the GBN who can tell you which of the 10-12 are going to fall in which of the three categories with much more accuracy than a blind monkey throwing darts at a moving target.
But that isn’t going to stop people from bitching a year or two down the road – when the 3-4 guys who aren’t going to work in fact go bust – that ‘boy did our GM fuck that pick up!’ because hindsight makes geniuses of us all. The good news for the Giants, though, is that with two top ten picks they have doubled their chances of getting a good player, and if they get really lucky – and they are due some luck at the draft – maybe you get a couple of guys that can really play.
In the same vein, we’ve said more than once in the past that if we had a dollar for every Giants’ fan who has written in and said ‘we have too many holes in the roster to …’ we’d be rich! And we’d certainly never argue that the Giants have holes in the roster. Indeed, right now they don’t have a RT, SS, or TE, not to mention an OLB/DE to play opposite Az Ojulari. However, Super Bowls aren’t won by the team with the fewest holes in their rosters and they aren’t won by teams with the most solid foundations. They are won by teams which have the most dynamic players who make the most dynamic plays. And it says here that the Giants real problems are not that they have too many holes in the roster, it’s that they have a real dearth of legitimate playmakers.
In that context, we’d also argue that you build, at least in the traditional sense, through the draft. That’s 1980s stuff that worked when a player belonged to the team that drafted them for as long as the team wanted them. But free agency and a relatively unforgiving salary cap changed all that. Indeed, it’s going to cost you an arm and a leg, for example, to keep anybody taken in the first round who is any good at all after only 5 years and just four for everyone else.
In fact, teams turn over pretty much their whole roster just about every few years or so. So the real goal becomes to put together, and try and keep together, a core of impact players and just mix and match with everybody else. Maybe more to the point, you win in the NFL these days with a really good QB, a couple of good receivers, a couple of decent OTs that can protect the edge, a couple of pass rushers and a couple of corners that can cover. And then fill in the rest as best as you can with later round draft picks and medium/low priced veteran free agents.
And, of course, we don’t have to re-state the basic axiom that you don’t draft positions, you draft players, especially with top ten picks. Fortunately for the Giants, though, there appears to be a pretty good match between the players that are likely going to be available when they are on the clock with the 5th and 7th picks and the positions that they are most likely looking to add an impact player or two at this month’s draft. Indeed, you can probably take it to the bank that the Giants select an OT with one of those two picks and most likely an edge rusher with the other.
Certainly, the Giants have been all over the top OTs in the run up to this year’s draft. Let’s be clear, though, that they are not going to be selecting an OT with a top 10 pick simply because they have a pretty big void at the position which of course they currently have at RT. They also aren’t going to be taking an OT to ‘once and for all fix the offensive line!’ They are going to be taking an OT because they want to run a lot of 4-5 receiver sets and in order to do that you really want to be confident that your OTs can protect the edge.
And that’s why Charles Cross of Mississippi State may be such an attractive candidate to the Giants, although he’s generally considered to be the third rated player at the position behind Alabama’s Evan Neal and Ickey Ekwonu of NC State. Cross, though, is the best pass blocker of the three; in fact, he’s generally considered to be THE best pass-blocking OL in this year’s draft class.
Which isn’t to say that Ekwonu and Neal aren’t really good prospects. Ekwonu, in particular, could very well be off the board when the Giants pick anyway. At the same time, though, the fact that Neal opted not to run at either the combine or the Alabama pro day really bothers me. Neal claimed he didn’t have anything to prove by running; my first thought, though, was kind of ‘hey man, you’re in competition to be the first OT selected on the 28th with a guy who ran a 4.93 forty! You got something to prove!’
My concern is that Neal knows what his 40 time is likely to be and it’s likely to be in the 5.30 range or slower which is very slow for a pass-blocking OT. The fact that Neal then said he’d be happy to play either OT or OG was a hint that he knows the NFL knows that he isn’t all that fast and wanted to reassure teams that he wasn’t going to be a problem about LT down the road.
The other advantage of taking an OT early this year is that it could give the Giants an additional two years of cap security on the left side of the OL. Incumbent LT Andrew Thomas is coming along very nicely, but he’s still a ways from playing at an elite level. However, he’ll be up for free agency in three years and he’ll no doubt be looking for something in the $18-20M range to stay, which may be a tad high for a guy who’s not necessarily a Pro Bowler.
In the end, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which the Giants don’t get a shot at at least one of the top OTs. Unfortunately, though, it is looking more and more likely that Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker, their likely top two edge-rushing targets with their other top ten pick will be off the board by the time the Giants get on the clock, although enigmatic Kayvon Thibodeaux, who not that long ago was considered to be pretty much a lock to be the first player picked this year, and Jermaine Johnson represent a couple of pretty good potential consolation prizes at the position.
The wild card for the Giants in the top ten, though, could be Cincinnati CB Sauce Gardner, although by all accounts both Houston and the Jets, who have the two immediate picks before the Giants, are also very intrigued by Gardner which could ultimately make the whole discussion somewhat academic. The Giants don’t have as big a need at corner as RT and edge rusher, even if, as expected, veteran James Bradberry is either traded or released. However, when talking top ten picks the goal isn’t necessarily to just fill holes, but to add impact players that hopefully will get you closer to competing for a championship. And in this era when so many good teams have dynamic WRs, you really want an elite cover guy who can match-up with the Cooper Kupp’s, Davante Adams’, Ja’Marr Chase’s and Stefon Diggs’ who are literally taking over the NFL these days.
In fact, one could make the case that the Giants themselves should be considering selecting a receiver like Drake London of USC or Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson with one of their top ten picks. However, there hasn’t been much indication to date that that is on their radar. Indeed, it was probably a pretty good hint that they would try and live with what they had at receiver in 2022 when they went way out of their way to keep Sterling Shepard around for another year. And so far they have shown exactly zero interest – as in zilch, nada, zippo – in any of the top receivers in this year’s draft class. They do not appear, for example, to have attended any of the leading WRs pro days in any significant way and don’t have any receivers at all on their 30-man guest list for in-house visits. We will watch later this week, though, to see if they show any interest in London’s private pro day on Friday.
All that doesn’t mean, of course, that the Giants won’t look to select a WR, especially one with deep speed, in a later round, but that will be more for depth. Instead, we would expect them to be looking at the secondary, both at safety and corner (especially if they don’t get Gardner in the first), along with TE and RB with their three second day picks. Indeed, it’s kind of interesting that they have actually put a lot more energy into scouting the top RBs this spring than they have the top WRs.
The other ‘of course’ through all of this is that the Giants are also in prime position to trade down, especially if as is currently being reported, there is real interest in this year’s QB class. Right now, Carolina with the 6th pick is the first team that appears primed to take a QB, so the 5th pick is the last stop for anybody that wants to jump the Panthers and get the guy of their choice. And the 7th pick will be the first pick after the Panthers if somebody wants to move up get the ‘other’ QB this year. Right now, though, there are just too many possible perms and combs out there for possible deals – short moves to #s 8 or 9 with Atlanta or Seattle or longer moves with New Orleans (at #16) or Pittsburgh (at #20) – to do more than random speculation. Certainly, though, the opportunities may be there for Giants G.M. Joe Schoen to come out of the 2022 draft known as ‘Trader Joe.’ Time will tell!!
For now, though, here’s how we see the Giants 2022 picks possibly playing out again sans trades:
#5. Assuming Hutchinson goes first or second we suspect the Giants short list would be something like Walker, Gardner and Ekwonu roughly in that order. If all four are gone – and that’s not out of the question – we wouldn’t be shocked if Mississippi State’s Cross was the pick as he is just a better fit with what they likely have in mind than Alabama’s Neal.
#7. Assuming the Giants get their OT with the 5th pick, this pick could very well come down to ERs Thibodeaux of Oregon or Florida State’s Johnson and it’s just hard to see Thibodeaux, as physically talented as he is, fitting the culture the Giants’ new regime is trying to build. We also wouldn’t totally rule out one of the WRs or Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton, who might qualify as a true BPA at this point, although those slow 40 times probably make it a real long shot. The other wild card we keep looking at though is Georgia DT Jordan Davis. He’s big like Dex Lawrence, but he’s also an extraordinary athlete for a guy that size who could give you a legitimate interior pass rush. Interesting!
#36. Assuming the Giants don’t get Cincy’s Gardner in the first, and Bradberry is indeed on the block, the Giants almost have to go CB here with someone like Kaiir Elam of Florida or Clemson’s Andrew Booth. They could also look at safeties like Lewis Cine of Georgia or Michigan’s Dax Hill, but good CBs are just so much harder to find that you probably want to get one as early as you can.
#67. While the Giants haven’t shown much interest in this year’s WR group, they have been looking at all the RBs, looking for a long-term replacement for Saquon Barkley. Heck, it wouldn’t be a total surprise if they took someone like Breece Hall of Iowa State or Michigan State’s Kenny Waller at the top of the second round, although neither is much of a receiver. Indeed, one would think that someone like James Cook of Georgia would make more sense early in the second.
#81. Pretty good chance the Giants get to this point in the draft without having addressed either of the issues at TE or SS. However, they should have some decent options at both in the latter part of the second day including safeties Jalen Pitre of Baylor, Maryland’s Nick Cross, and Kerby Joseph of Illinois and TEs Greg Dulcich of UCLA, Isaiah Likely of Coastal Carolina and Jelani Woods of Virginia. Take you pick, but we’d be tempted to take the safety as there will still be some pretty good options at TE early in the third day.
#112. To keep things simple, it would be nice to see the Giants address the issue they passed on at #81. In fact, they’d be thrilled if one of the guys on their short list at that point was still on the board. If that didn’t work out they could be looking at TEs like Cade Otton of Washington, Cole Turner of Nevada and Maryland’s Chig Okonkwo, who really blew up the combine, while safeties on their short list early on the second day could include Oregon’s Verone McKinley, Bubba Bolden of Miami and Baylor’s JT Woods.
#147. Getting this deep into the draft it’s tough to project who anybody’s going to take, but it might be a spot to add some more depth to the offensive line, especially inside where interior offensive linemen Ed Ingram of LSU, Justin Shaffer of Georgia and Logan Bruss of Wisconsin and San Diego State G/T Zach Thomas might be good fits. WR might also be on the table with track speedsters like Tyquan Thornton of Baylor, Bo Melton of Rutgers and Texas Tech’s Erik Ezukanma likely still on the board.
#173, 183. Teams often like to use their later round picks to bring in depth in the secondary and this might make some sense for the Giants who if nothing else could use the help on special teams with CBs like Isaac Taylor-Stuart of USC, Josh Thompson of Texas, Virginia Tech’s Jermaine Waller and small-school star Josh Williams of Fayetteville State and safeties like Chris Steele of USC and Kentucky’s Yusuf Corker, Tycen Anderson of Toledo, Percy Butler of Louisiana and Sterling Weatherford of Miami (OH). Same for ILBs like Malcolm Rodriguez of Oklahoma State and Wisconsin’s Jack Sanborn. And we could go! But you should get the point. This draft doesn’t necessarily have the same upfront talent of previous drafts, but the depth is really quite remarkable.
Just two weeks to go! Hang in there!!
