Fun with forecasts: Raiders with best odds to pick 1st … The NY Giants, who haven’t had the first pick overall in the draft since 1965 (when they passed on future Hall-of-Famers Gayle Sayers AND Dick Butkus to take Tucker Fredrickson, but that’s another story), are currently sitting on the #1 pick this year in the weekly selection order. And that has their fan base salivating over the possibility of getting a major haul of picks in a trade with a team looking to move up to get a QB. However, those fans may want to hold their water as it may be a whole lot harder for the Giants to stay at #1 than it was to actually get there. Fact is the Giants, who have played one of, if not the hardest schedule in the league to date, have one of the easiest slates for the final month of the campaign.
The NFC New Yorkers, for example, have played 9 of their 13 games to date against playoff teams (with two of their other games coming at Dallas and against Kansas City), whereas each of the their final 4 games are against teams that are .500 or below, including games against 3-10 Washington this weekend in the Meadowlands and at 2-11 Las Vegas in a couple of weeks in a match-up of teams that currently hold the first and second picks overall. In fact, New Orleans actually may have an easier schedule than the Giants as they also play all four of the their remaining games against teams with losing records including the Jets and Titans.
| Current # | Team | Current SOS | Remaining SOS | 2-3 win games* | Sub-.500 games** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NY Giants | .532 | .317 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Las Vegas | .550 | .480 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | Tennessee | .575 | .500 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 | Cleveland | .486 | .556 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | New Orleans | .498 | .301 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | NY Jets | .541 | .596 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Washington | .509 | .471 | 1 | 1 |
| Arizona | .570 | .519 | 0 | 0 |
** remaining games against teams with 2-3 wins to date ** remaining games against teams with sub-.500 records to date
Of course, the actual games are still to be played and who knows how they’ll ultimately turn out, but we broke down the schedules of each of the teams with 2 or 3 three wins so far this year and, at least on paper, it would appear that Las Vegas may actually be the team most likely to end up with the top pick this year. The Raiders do have that home game with the Giants later this month in what could be THE ‘draft’ game of the year, but also have to face the Eagles, Texans and Chiefs. And while it is admittedly a very inexact science, just based on the remaining schedules for the respective teams, how they’ve been playing over the last while, as well as who they have available, especially at QB, we project the top 8 or so picks could end up as:
1. Las Vegas
2. Tennessee
3. Cleveland
4. Washington
5. NY Giants
6. NY Jets
7. Arizona
8. New Orleans
