It seems that just about every draft year, the watchwords heading into the draft are ‘expect the unexpected’ but then year and year out it seems that the picks actually come off the year in pretty much cookie cutter fashion. Not so much in last night’s opening round of the 2018 draft which was chock full of surprises starting with the first pick overall when Cleveland chose Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield who really hadn’t even been in the conversation to be the #1 pick until just 2-3 days before the draft. Indeed, the biggest takeaway from this year’s opening round was probably that in the end the league just didn’t see the value in this year’s QB class that was expected based on the amount of time the various teams had put in evaluating the top prospects at the position.
The first tell came when the Browns selected Mayfield who though out most of the pre-draft process had been considered to be the poor cousin of the three top prospects at the position: USC:’s Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen of UCLA and Wyoming’s Josh Allen. All three did still go in the top ten with Darnold going to the Jets at #3, Allen to the Bills at #7 and Rosen to the Cardinals at #10, but each was selected somewhat later that even the most conservative projections. Along the way, Cleveland wasn’t able to get to get the King’s ransom of picks from a QB-needy team to move out of the 4th pick; Denver, which was as heavily invested in evaluating the QB prospects as any team in the league, passed on both Allen and Rosen with the 6th pick; and like the Browns, the Colts, who really wanted to move down from the 6th pick, didn’t get an offer to their liking. Meanwhile, neither Buffalo nor Arizona, which did ultimately move up to select Allen and Rosen respectively, had to give up a whole lot to get where they needed to be to get their QB of the future.
At the same time, it was interesting to note for future reference that at least in the draft NFL teams still put a lot of stock in the offensive line. No surprise that Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson went 6th overall to Indianapolis, but OT Mike McGlinchey, Nelson’s former Irish linemate who was taken 9th overall by San Francisco, UCLA OT Kolton Miller (15th to Oakland); Arkansas C Frank Ragnow (20th to Detroit); Ohio State C Billy Price (21st to Cincinnati); and Georgia G/T Isaiah Wynn (23rd to New England) all went considerably higher than they were projected. On the other hand at least a couple of big uglies in Texas OT Connor Williams and Iowa C James Daniels who were considered locks to be first round picks were not selected so it will be interesting to see if they go early in this evening’s second round.
In fact, Buffalo may have earned the ‘Play of the Day’ award for their two picks in this year’s opening round. The Bills were able to move from the 21st to the 12th to the 7th picks to get QB Allen without giving up either their second opening round selection this year or a future first round pick. The Bills were then able to grab Virginia Tech OLB Tremaine Edmunds, one of the most dynamic defenders in this year’s draft, after moving up from the 22nd to the 16th pick in a deal with Baltimore for a 3rd rounder. At the same time, legendary former Green Bay G.M. Ted Thompson had to be just a little proud of new Packers’ G.M. Brian Gutenkunst, his protogee who stole an extra 2019 first rounder in a deal with New Orleans in dropping down from #14 to #27, but then was able to move back up to the 18th pick for just a 3rd rounder. And at that 18th pick the Packers got rising Louisville CB Jaire Alexander, who likely would have been on the Packers’ short list if they had stayed at their original pick at #14. Good job!
Indeed, this morning, just about every NFL G.M. whose team made at least one opening round pick last night (and maybe even some that didn’t) will be proudly proclaiming that ‘we just couldn’t believe our guy was still there!’ Most will be lying but this year one could make a pretty good case that several teams couldn’t believe that in fact there guy was there including the NY Jets who got QB Darnold at #3; the LA Chargers who got Florida State SS Derwin James at #17; Atlanta who got Alabama WR Calvin Ridley at #26; and Jacksonville who got Florida DT Taven Bryan at #29.
On the other hand, the head scratcher of the night had to be that deal New Orleans made with Green Bay to move up from the 27th to the 14th pick where the Saints took Texas San Antonio DE Marcus Davenport. No question that Davenport has some nice upside as an edge rusher and was a value pick at #14 on potential alone, but he is still as raw and unpolished as they come. As such, its just hard to figure giving up a future #1 pick in that scenario even if the Saints want to go all in in Drew Brees final years. At the same time, we aren’t sure that Tennessee had to trade up three spots to get Alabama LB Rashaan Evans at the cost of a 4th rounder.
Once again, Alabama was the top college team in this year’s opening round as 4 former Tide players including DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Da’Ron Payne, LB Rashaan Evans and WR Calvin Ridley were selected last evening. In fact, it was a 10th year in a row that Alabama had at least one player selected in the opening round which ties Miami for the all-time best figure. Meanwhile, Georgia had three players selected while UCLA, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Louisville and Virginia Tech each had two players selected. Of note the two Va Tech players selected – Tremaine and Terrell Edmunds – were the first brothers ever selected in the opening round.
No surprise too as the SEC also once again had the most first-round selections again this year. Led by Alabama’s 4 picks, the SEC had 10 players taken in last night’s opening round, followed by the ACC with 7 and the PAC-12 with 4. On the other hand, the Big Ten only had three first-round selections – the same number as the Mountain West conference – while Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield was the only Big XII selection.
