Understanding the NFL’s new KO rules

October 1, 2024

The NFL has always been known for its evolving strategies and rule adaptations aimed at maintaining a competitive and entertaining game. This year, inspired by the XFL, the NFL has introduced new kickoff rules for the 2024 season with the dual aim of increasing returns and reducing injuries.
As we dive into the details of these changes, the central question remains: Will these new rules succeed or fail? Let’s break down the specifics to understand the potential impact.

The New Kickoff Setup: Starting this fall, the NFL has introduced several changes to the kickoff rules on a one-year trial basis, with the intention to strike a balance between player safety and game excitement. Here’s how the new setup looks: The kicking team must have five players on each side of the ball on the opponent’s 40-yard line with no more than two outside the numbers, while the receiving team must line up within one yard of their 35-yard line and neither side (other than the kicker and returners) can move until the ball either hits the ground or is fielded. If the kick lands in the end zone the ball will be placed at the 30-yard line; any kick that hits the landing zone (between the 20-yard line and goal line) must be returned; and if the ball lands inside the 20-yard line and rolls into the end zone, the ball will be placed at the 20-yard line if it is not returned. On the other hand, if a kick fails to reach the landing zone or goes out of bounds, the receiving team takes possession at its 40-yard line.

Teams can STILL opt to try an onside kick, but only in the 4th quarter and they must declare their intention to do so, so at least for this year, no more surprise onside kick-offs. Other than that the onside kick rules are pretty much the same other than the fact that if the onside kick goes beyond the setup zone untouched the return team gets the ball at the kicking team’s 20-yard line (or if it is after a safety as in last night’s Tennessee-Miami game) at the 10.

These adjustments were designed to minimize high-speed collisions and make for safer plays. Rich McKay, chairman of the NFL Competition Committee, has emphasized that these rules aim to preserve the role of special teams without completely eliminating kickoffs, which would otherwise reduce the game to punts. In fact, player safety has been a significant hot topic in recent years and the new kickoff rules are a direct response to concerns over the high number of injuries occurring during special teams plays, along with similar recent rule innovations such the ban on hip-drop tackles; hits on defenceless receivers and targeting.

Implementation and Future Considerations: In fact, the changes to the kickoff rules are currently being implemented on a one-year trial basis for the 2024 season. The NFL will monitor their impact and gather data to determine whether these rules will be extended or modified for the 2025 season and beyond. Some factors under review include: Injury Rates: Will these new rules significantly reduce injuries?; Game Dynamics: Are there more returns and fewer touchbacks, contributing to the excitement of the game?  Special Teams Importance: Does maintaining kickoff returns preserve the strategic importance of special teams? Ensuring these factors align with the desired outcomes will be crucial for the future of these rules.

The Impact on Teams and Strategies: Coaches and players need to adapt their strategies to align with these new rules. This adaptation might include much aspects as revised special teams practice to focus more on alignment and positioning, strategic planning to develop new game plans that minimize high-speed collisions and maximize safe returns, and roster construction with an emphasis shift towards selecting players who can excel under these new conditions, potentially altering team composition.

So what do we know so far? Not surprisingly, there isn’t much data yet suggesting how the new KO system is working out, especially as it relates to injuries. What we do seem to know is that there has been a slight increase in the number of KOs returned through the 1st four weeks of the year compared with last year. This year, for example, somewhere between 25-30% of kickoffs have been returned to date, up from 22% last year. And that figure may increase as teams calculate that while their opponents get the ball at the 30 on a touchback, not many teams are getting KOs they do return to the 20. We shall see.

Conclusion: The new NFL kickoff rules signify an essential step towards balancing player safety with maintaining the excitement of the game. By carefully analyzing injury rates, game dynamics, special teams’ importance, and public reception, the NFL aims to create a safer yet thrilling playing environment. As teams adapt and the season progresses, the success or failure of these rules will become clearer. Time will tell whether the NFL’s latest experiment is a strategic victory or a missed opportunity. In the midst of all these changes, don’t forget to check out the NFL latest lines for the upcoming season and see how these new rules might impact the odds and your betting strategies.