Scouting Combine by the numbers

February 23, 2020

NFL people are gathering in Indianapolis as we speak in anticipation of this week’s annual scouting combine at which 337 of the top prospects for the 2020 draft are set to be poked, prodded and physically tested to their limit. And while the importance of the combine sometimes gets overstated, no question it is one of the key elements of the entire pre-draft process. For starters, just who gets invited to the combine is a pretty good indicator of who is actually going to be drafted in April. How good? Last year, for example, 87% of the 254 players selected at the 2019 draft participated in last February’s scouting combine. In fact, that’s fairly consistent with the figure over the course of the last decade when the percentage of those who were ultimately actually drafted was around 85%, although it is still somewhat a bit less than in 2018 when a record high 89% of drafted players had been at the combine.

Of course, its also not surprising that the vast majority of players taken in the early rounds of recent drafts have been combine participants, while almost all drafted players who were not combine participants have been chosen in the later rounds. Last year, for example, all but one player selected in the first three rounds had been a combine participant. And the one – former Murray State LB Quincy Williams – was selected 98th overall by Jacksonville with a compensatory pick in the 3rd round. Same thing in the 4th round where only one non-combine player was selected, while there were 2 in the 5th round, 12 in the 6th and 17 in the 7th round. However, even in those later rounds, the majority of players drafted went to the combine. This past April, for example, almost 71% of players selected in the 6th round had been invited to the combine, while the figure was just under 60% for the final round. Again, these numbers have been remarkably consistent over the past five years or so.

At the same time, though, simply getting an invite to the combine is hardly a guarantee that a player will ultimately being drafted, although it certainly is a good start. In fact, historically, around two out of three players invited to the combine have ultimately been drafted, another figure that has been remarkably consistent in recent years. In fact, last year the figure was exactly 67%. On the other hand, the percentage of players at the combine at different positions who end up being drafted varies significantly on a year-by-year basis such that it is really impossible to predict what will happen in any one particular year in that regard.

Of course, its no surprise that the vast majority of players who are ultimately drafted attend the combine as NFL teams have a major input into who gets invited to the combine and who isn’t. And its no surprise that teams want to see the players who they already have the highest grades on in Indianapolis.

And while the on-field testing including the 40-yard dash and positional drills get most of the headlines at the combine, much of the really important stuff actually takes place behind closed doors. Indeed, the combine was originally organized to centralize pre-draft medical testing. Before the combine era, each team did its own medical checks with the result that players were subjected to x-rays and other tests by as many as 32 teams. As a result, some of the players were literally starting to glow by the end of the process. In fact, every team sends its own medical team to the combine, but the players are only subjected to one set of tests. Then any players who have serious medical issues will be recalled to Indianapolis for a follow-up set of tests in early April. This year’s contingent of prospects with medical issues that NFL teams are waiting for word on is lead by Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, a top 5 candidate who had season-ending surgery on a serious hip injury back in October.

At the same time, all teams are allowed to interview up to 45 players for 15 minutes over the course of the week. That, of course, is a major change from previous years when teams were allowed to interview up to 60 players each, although not all teams used their limit to the max.These interviews are key because they may be the only time a prospect actually gets to meet and talk to the various general managers and/or head coaches. Certainly, these interviews are critical for players who have had off-field problems in the past, both legal and character-wise. They are also important because teams like to throw as much as they can at the players in these interviews to test  how much information they can absorb in a short period of time because that’s pretty much what they will have to do once the get to the next level.

There are also major changes to the schedule for this year’s combine. Players are again grouped into 4 groups, but unlike the forever past when the offensive linemen kicked off the event, the first group to arrive in Indianapolis this year will be the QBs, WRs and TEs. They’ll be followed by the offensive linemen, running backs and specialists in group two, the defensive linemen and linebackers in the 3rd group, with the defensive backs wrapping things up as the final group. Each group will be in Indianapolis for a total of 6 days, one more than in the past. Day 1 the players arrive, undergo registration and orientation and start the interviews. On Day 2 the players are measured and weighed, have X-rays and pre-medical exams and more interviews. Day 3 is when they meet with the media, have medical exams, undergo psychological testing and have position coach interviews. Day 4 they have an NFLPA meeting, more interviews, do the bench press and more psychological testing. Day 5 is when they have their on-field workouts and more interviews, while Day 6 is get-away day. The first of the four days of on-field testing gets underway on Thursday with the QBs and receivers. And, unlike the past when these sessions got underway early in the morning, this year’s workouts will be in prime starting starting at 4 PM ET on Thursday. The 2nd and 3rd groups will also start their workouts at 4 PM ET, while the DBs get going at 2 PM ET on Sunday.