The haves & have-nots to some degree swapped places in the AFC West last season. No real surprise that the RAIDERS came in dead last and got the top Pick in the 2026 Draft. But how many of us projected the CHIEFS to slide all the way to a 6-11 record and end up with the 9th overall Pick in the upcoming Draft. And kudos to SEAN PAYTON & George Paton/GM for claiming the division title with a 14-3 record. So what is in store for 2026? Let’s look at what each team has done and may do before Training Camps open.
DENVER BRONCOS (14-3): The BRONCOS to date have made only one meaningful move to address their roster, but that one move in trading for JAYLEN WADDLE to round out their receivers group, may result in a large uptick in explosive plays in their passing attack. But that move also made a big dent in their probable drafting impact with only 1 Pick in the Top 100, and 6 more on Day 3 of the Draft. They currently have $18.7-million in Cap Space for this coming season, which eaves them with little wiggle room. And they have only signed 1 VFA in S/Tycen Anderson. Look for them to try signing a handful of backup type VFA to one-year contracts after the Draft.
So let’s move on to their meager Draft Capital scenario. They have 7 overall Picks. Their highest Pick is…
Round 2, Pick 62 MALACHI LAWRENCE DE/ER Central Florida 6’4/255
They then have Picks 108, 111, 170, 246, 256, 257 all on Day 3.
No one can accuse the PAYTON/PATON team of being risk averse when it comes to sticking their roster.
I project that they will slip down a couple of notches in their Win total this season to 11-6, and settle for a Wild Card slot in the post-season.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-11): The Chiefs losing 11 games and picking in the Top 10 of the Draft seems like ancient history. Like Before Mahomes, ancient. And while Patrick rehabs his leg injury in hopes of being ready for Training Camp opening, the task is left up to GM BRETT VEACH to retool a roster, and he has much to do. The team entered the off-season with some serious Salary Cap issues to take care of. VEACH has gotten the team below the Cap by $6.7-million. And they are only looking at Dead Cap Space of $9.7-million. The roster however shows a huge hole in their secondary, which has lost 3 starters since VFA began. They have added more than they lost talent wise elsewhere. RB Kenneth Walker from the Super Bowl champion SEAHAWKS parlayed a Super Bowl MVP award from the winning team cashed in big and will be RB1 in KC. Justin Fields is now QB2 n town and could start if MAHOMES rehab hits a road bump. I expect several CB on their Draft list, but for now they have added ALOHI GILMAN/S and KADER KOHOU/CB to the DB room. Massive DT KHYRIS TONGA, from NE, will make a big partner for CRHSI JONES in the DL interior.
The team has 9 Picks in the upcoming Draft and 4 of them are Top 75 Picks. As the Templar Knight said to Indiana Jones as he searched for the Holy Grail, “Choose wisely”.
Round 1, Pick 9 FRANCISCO MAUIGOA RT Miami(F) 6’6/330
Round 1, Pick 29 COLTON HOOD CB Tennessee 6’0/190
Round 2, Pick 40 ELI STOWERS TE Vanderbilt 6’4/240
Round 3, Pick 74 KAMARI RAMSEY S Southern Cal 6’0/200
They also have Picks @ R4, 109, R5/148, R5/169, R5/176, R6/210
Now the biggest question becomes which version of Patrick Mahomes returns from his injury to lead the Chiefs. If it’s vintage MAHOMES then maybe a 9 or 10 Win season, and a Wild Card slot for the Play-Offs. If not then a losing record and a 3rd Place division finish, with no post season play.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (11-6): The team looked tougher and more confident under new Head Coach JIM HARBAUGH last season. And JUSTIN HERBERT continues to improve and exert leadership as their Franchise QB, pretty much being the best QB in the division. But the injury bug continues to reside in their locker room. A healthy return by both OT ALT/SLATER is a must. Then they need to exercise their 6 Draft Picks in a manner that adds new blood to certain key positions, especially on their defensive side. They signed 6 potential contributing players for the Offense; TYLER BIADASZ/CO, COEL STRANGE/OG, CHARLIE KOLLAR/TE, ALEC INGOLD/FB, KEATON MITCHELL/RB/RS. The only VFA on Defense is run stopping DT DALVIN TOMLINSON. All six of these guys should be considered as first starters going into Training Camp.
The CHARGERS have 5 Picks in the Draft, so they cannot afford to fail to hit on their Picks. Here are their top 3 Picks as I would project them;
Round 1, Pick 22 AKHEEM MESIDOR ER/OB Miami (F) 6’3/259
Round 2, Pick 55 CHRIS JOHNSON CB San Diego St 6-1/193
Round 3, Pick 86 JALEN FARMER OG Kentucky 6’5/312
Other Picks R4/P123; R6/P204
The team is currently listed as having over $48-million in Cap Space, which would suggest to me that they may be looking for a couple of leftover VFA after the Draft, who they can sign to less expensive 1-year contracts to plug 2-3 roster holes they have leftover, after their drafting is over.
I will reiterate my earlier statement that they have got to find a way to keep their roster healthier than in past seasons. They have upped the intensity of practices and player conditioning as expected under HARBAUGH and his staff. But more guys have to play more downs on a weekly basis than in recent seasons for them to challenge the Broncos for the title in the AFC West.
I will take a big swing and say predict a 12-5 season mark which might tie them with the Broncos. We may be watching tie-breaker formulas very closely next January in this division.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (3-14): I have saved the RAIDERS for last here because even though they were the worst team in the league in 2025 (without much question) they have been very aggressive in almost completely flipping their roster. And that also means they are going to get exactly one of their biggest needs, a premier QB to choose in the Draft in FRANCISCO MENDOZA, formerly with the undefeated, 2025 national champion of D1 football INDIANA Hoosiers. They also just signed, at a bargain price, KIRK COUSINS to help ease MENDOZA into a starting job, and tutor him as he develops.
In VFA they have spent freely and have added a double digit number of potential vet starters without breaking the bank, or ruining their Salary Cap picture. On Offense they have added Jalen NAILOR/WR, SPENCER BURFORD/OG, TYLER LINDERBAUM/OC, CONNOR HEYWARD/FB/ST, and PK/MATT GAY. On Defense they have added a potentially complete LB corps in NAKOBE DEAN, SEGUIN OLUBI & QUAY WALKER. They also signed ER/TWITTY PAYE and traded for NB/TARON JOHNSON from the BLLS. Their trade of MAXX CROSBY was nixed by Ravens team doctors, but I would say keep watching for his name in trade talk again during and/or after the DRAFT.
Even with the Crosby Trade falling through, they currently have 10 Draft Picks in their pockets for more significant roster additions. They possess 3 Picks in the top 100, and may dominate Day 3 in Pittsburgh which 3 selections in Round 4, at 102, 117, 134. Here is my projection for their first 3 Picks.
Round 1, Pick 1 FRANCISCO MENDOZA QB Indiana 6’5/235
Round 2, Pick 36 MAX IHEANACHOR OT Arizona St 6’6/320
Round 3, Pick 67 KEITH ABNEY CB Arizona St 5’10/187
The team should show improvement overall, and may be a tough out as November rolls around. In addition to the QB guidance from COUSINS, I would be shocked if TOM BRADY doesn’t spend some time in the off-season with MENDOZA. It should also be pointed out that the team is listed as having a bit over $23-million in Cap Space to shop around for more help post-Draft.
I project they finish last in the division this coming season, but double their win total from last season to 6 or 7 Wins.
That’s my wrap-up for now on the AFC West.
Pigskin
