Path to draft runs through Indy!

February 9, 2016

by Grumpy Lindsay

The NFL’s annual scouting combine which gets underway in Indianapolis two weeks today, is one of the key elements of the entire pre-draft process. How key? Last year, for example, 84% of the 256 players selected at the 2015 draft participated in some form in last February’s scouting combine. In fact, the number of players who attended the combine as a percentage of those who were ultimately actually drafted has been remarkably constant at around 85% over the past the past decade or so.

In addition, the vast majority of players taken in the early rounds of recent drafts have been combine participants, while almost all drafted players who had not been invited to the combine have been chosen in the later rounds. Indeed, every player selected on either the first or second day of the 2015 draft was at the combine last February. Indeed, the first player selected at this past May’s draft who had not attended the combine – former Delaware State DT Rodney Gunter – was not taken until the middle of the 4th round when he was selected with the 116th pick overall by Arizona.

In contrast, most of the drafted players who were not at the combine were chosen in the later rounds. Indeed, over 75% of the 40 the players who were selected at the 2015 draft despite not being invited to the combine were chosen in either the 6th or 7th rounds with the majority. However, even in the late rounds the majority of players drafted went to the combine. In 2015, fr example, just under almost 60% of players selected in the 6th round were invited to the combine, while the figure was just over 65% for the final round.

However, simply getting an invite to the combine is hardly a guarantee that a player will ultimately being drafted, although it certainly is a good start. In fact, of the 332 players at the 2015 combine, 64% were ultimately drafted, another figure that has been remarkably consistent in recent years. That figure, though, does vary on a year-by-year basis for different positions. This year, for example, over 80% of the OTs in Indianapolis were drafted, while the figure was around 75% among defensive linemen, both DEs and DTs, CBs and LBs. At the same time, the figure was around 70% for WRs, TEs and OGs, while it was closer to 60% for RBs. In contrast, only 50% of the safeties at the combine last February were drafted while only 40% of the QBs invited to Indianapolis were ultimately drafted.

As noted, though, the position of choice among combine participants varies significantly by year. In 2010, for example, TEs, defensive linemen and OTs attending the combine were the most likely to have been drafted, while in 2011 CBs who attended the combine were the most likely to be drafted. Then in 2012, almost 90% of OLBs that attended the combine were drafted, while in 2013, the position of choice among those attending the combine were the defensive linemen as 87% of DEs invited to Indianapolis that year were ultimately drafted, while the figure was 84% among the DTs. At the same time, the OTs were the most likely drafted players to have attended the combine in 2014, making it two years in a row in which that position was the position of choice at the draft.

Whatever the position, though, the majority of players who were selected were at the combine. Indeed, all 18 RBs selected at the 2015 draft were combine attendees, as were 6 of the 7 QBs who were drafted. At the same time, around 90% of each of the OGs, WRs and defensive linemen, both DEs and DTs,  selected at the 2015 draft were combine participants, as were over 80% among players listed as OTs or CBs. In contrast, safeties were the most likely players not at the combine to ultimately be drafted at 69%, although the margin of error on all these numbers is relatively large.

Of course, its no surprise that the vast majority of players who are ultimately drafted attend the combine as NFL teams have a major input into who gets invited to the combine and who isn’t. And its no surprise that teams want to see the players who they already have the highest grades on in Indianapolis.