2008 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

by Kevin Horning; GBN Chief Scout

Independents Preview

Team: Notre Dame

Players To Watch: RT Sam Young, MLB Maurice Crum, QB Jimmy Clausen, FS David Bruton

Biggest Games: Michigan on 9/13; Pittsburgh on 11/1; @ USC on 11/29

Overview: It was a pleasure for a lot of college football fans to see Notre Dame as one of the worst teams in the country in 2007, finishing with only 3 wins. Charlie Weis was exposed for exactly what he is: an overrated head coach. There’s no Tom Brady here is South Bend Charlie. Weis is supposed to be an offensive mastermind but the Irish were the worst offensive unit in the nation last year averaging 242 total yards a game. Which leads me to one more Weis bashing point, I have read on numerous occasions that he had another coaches players, so he could blame last year on that. That thought is absolute crap. He went a pretty good 19-6 in his first 2 years with Tyrone Willingham’s players. Everyone gave him so much credit for that, but when his recruits were in the forefront in 2007, and he actually had to coach them up, you saw what happened. In 2008 things will be better for Notre Dame, and heck since they have their own separate rules because of the BCS junk, all they have to do is go 6-6 and they will get a decent bowl bid. In reality the only reason why they will be better is because they can’t be any worse, and the schedule is lighter. Weis is supposed to be this great recruiter yet I have zero good points about anyone on this roster that I can list. The program hasn’t won a bowl game in 15 years, and has lost 9 straight bowls, yet all of their games are still on television, and the BCS gave them their own set of standards so they can make the BCS easier than other teams. And the Notre Dame marketing team has already gotten off to a quick start, thanks to former coach Lou Holtz. On a television appearance, Holtz actually said they will win 10 or 11 games this year. I wonder how much the school paid him to say that. If he means it he should fired as a college football analyst because he knows absolutely nothing about the sport. I don’t care what accomplishments he has made as a coach, if he meant that, senility has set in.  I could go on and on about how this program is overrated but I’ll stop here and move on. But honestly enough about the tradition and aura of Notre Dame Football. Those days have been over for over a decade. The good news is they will make a bowl but will probably make it 10 bowl losses in a row.

Team: Navy

Players To Watch: QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, SB Shun White, FB Eric Kettani, ILB Clint Sovie

Biggest Games: Rutgers on 9/20, @ Air Force on 10/4, Notre Dame on 11/15, Army on 12/6

Overview: Even sporting one of the worst defenses in the country, Navy won eight games last year before losing to Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl. Of course the highlight was the 46-44 overtime win in Notre Dame Stadium that ended their 44-game losing streak to the Irish. Quietly Navy has been a very consistent program that has put together a nice run this decade after a rough going in the 1990’s. The catalyst of the turn around, former coach Paul Johnson has moved on the Georgia Tech after posting a 45-30 record in 6 seasons. He will be their biggest loss, but new coach Ken Niumatalolo is not new to the program, or their sophisticated triple option offense. Because of this the Midshipmen will play exactly the same in 2008 as they have in years past, and should still make a bowl relatively easy, especially when they created the Congressional Bowl pretty much for Navy. The offense was 1st in the nation in rushing averaging 349 rush yards a game. They were dead last in passing offense, but that is nothing new. Their offense will be the sparkplug for the team but the defense will have to play better if they want to ensure their sixth consecutive bowl appearance. This unit gave up an average of 36 points and 439 yards a game, and in a 5-game span in 2007, allowed an amazing 50.8 points a game, that included giving up 59 to FCS member Delaware, and 62 to a 2-10 North Texas team. Navy has a good foundation in place, and looks to have 7 or 8 wins on the schedule, but could lose some games they should win if that defense doesn’t play better. A berth in their Congressional Bowl is a given as long as they are 6-6.

Team: Army

Players To Watch: QB Carson Williams, RT Mike Lemming, DE Nick Emmons

Biggest Games: Temple on 8/29, Air Force on 11/1, Navy on 12/6

Overview: Stan Brock enters his second year in charge of the Army program with hopes of ending the Cadets’ 11 year bowl drought. It’s been that long since Army was any sort of a factor in college football. Brock has brought the wishbone offense back to the team which should help them. Their strengths are for an option attack and were a bit out of character last year running a spread attack. The Black Knights were always a competitive team with the option, and grinding yards out and keeping the chains moving, is what they are going to need to have any success this year. As always there were heavy losses with graduation with only 9 starters back. They have a soft early schedule that could enable them to get off to a fast start and build confidence. That’s the main reason I listed Temple as one of their big games. If they can knock off an improved Owl team in the season opener, they could surprise some people and get to .500. They have other down programs such as Akron, Tulane, Eastern Michigan, and Rice on the schedule with New Hampshire, an FCS program, which could get Army to six wins. It may sound like a cupcake slate but this program needs to get a few wins so they can start to feel good about themselves. The option is always a difficult scheme, especially when it’s done right, so some opponents will have trouble defending it. With a defense that was 89th in the nation and 117th against the run, the less they are on the field the better. Army has been through a down time lately but could really snap out of it and have a good season if some things go right for them.

Team: Western Kentucky

Overview: The Hilltoppers enter the second year of a 2-year transitional period after moving up from Division I-AA. They will become the ninth member of the Sun Belt in 2009, which will help all members as they won’t have to schedule another BCS powerhouse to fill out the schedule. This is the only FBS team that I have not seen so I am not going to even act like I have a good idea how they play and what kind of players they have. Since pretty much all of their games this year are against FBS programs expect them to struggle through the season. The only FBS team that they beat in 2007 was Middle Tennessee State. This is a little optimistic however, since MTSU is in the Sun Belt. With 5 games versus future conference foes on the schedule we’ll get a good idea if they will compete right away in the Sun Belt, or will need a few years to build the program to the FBS level.

Mid-American Conference Preview

Favorite: Central Michigan

Dark Horse: Bowling Green

Coach on the Hot Seat: Randy Hoke (Ball State)- Hoke led Ball State to a winning record for the first time in his five seasons at the school in 2007. An explosive offense carried them to seven wins and an International Bowl appearance. This year, with 15 starters back, the Cardinals are expected to challenge for the title. Hoke is 22-37 overall in his tenure but should have his best team in 2008. If he can lead them to the MAC championship he will secure his job, but could be gone if they fail to live up to expectations.

Best Coach: Tom Amstutz (Toledo)- Amstutz has been with the Toledo program for 27 years including the last seven as head coach. Although the Rockets are 10-14 the last 2 years, which followed a period of 5 seasons when they won 45 games, and two MAC titles. Always a candidate to knock off a BCS opponent, Amstutz always has his team prepared, and will be back at the top of the conference sooner rather than later. Just one side note: Al Golden will take this honor next season, even with a career winning percentage of 30%.

Best Program: Bowling Green - This pick may surprise a lot of people, but the Falcons have been the most consistent program since 2001, posting a 55-30 record and 3 bowl appearances. Whether it’s Urban Meyer or Gregg Brandon as coach, the team has been a factor in the conference race year after year. The success should continue in 2008 as 17 starters are back from last year’s 8-5 squad, and they do not have to face Central Michigan or Ball St., quite possibly the two best teams in the conference.

Top NFL Prospect: QB Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) - The Tim Tebow of the MAC, LeFevour has been unstoppable the last 2 seasons, and he is still only a junior. LeFevour gained 4,774 total yards in 2007 while accounting for 47 touchdowns. He became just the second player in D-1 history to throw for 3,000 yards and run for 1,000 yards in the same season. A guy name Vince Young was the other. LeFevour has good size (6’3” 226), a big arm, and the athletic ability to become a starter at the next level. Hopefully he stays all four years to develop his game and he could be a first round pick in 2010 Draft.

Newcomer: Jahleel Addae (Central Michigan) - Addae will be a welcome newcomer and another weapon to add to an already dangerous offense. A three star recruit from Florida, he will team with Ontario Sneed and Justin Hoskins to form the best backfield in the conference. Sneed always seems to be in the doghouse so another speedy back was needed as insurance. He should be a good change of pace back immediately.

Breakout: RB James Starks (Buffalo)- Without a doubt this is another payer that I love and has been under the radar for long enough. In his two seasons as the Bulls running back, Starks, who came to the school as a quarterback, has rushed for 1,807 yards and 18 touchdowns. He is a big back (6’2” 210) with good hands out of the backfield. Starks already has 75 career catches for 537 yards and another 2 scores. Buffalo improved a great deal in 2007, winning five games, and Starks was the biggest reason. He is still only a redshirt junior and has the potential of being a first or second round pick in 2 years.

Five Biggest Games: Central Michigan @ Toledo (10/25); Kent State @ Miami (10/25); Kent State @ Bowling Green (11/1); Ball State @ Miami (11/11); Ball State @ Central Michigan (11/19)

Players To Watch: QB Dan LeFevour, RB Ontario Sneed, WR Bryan Anderson, WR Antonio Brown, LT Andrew Hartline CB Josh Gordy, OLB Nick Bellore (Central Michigan); QB Nate Davis, WR Dante Love, TE Darius Hill, RB MiQuale Lewis, RT Robert Brewster, DE Brandon Crawford, OLB Bryant Haines, CB B.J. Hill (Ball State); QB Daniel Raudabaugh, DE Joe Coniglio, MLB Clayton Mullins, OLB Joey Hudson, FS Jordan Gafford (Miami, OH); QB Nathan Edelman, RB Eugene Jarvis, DE Kevin Hogan, OLB Derek Burrell, DE Monte Simmons (Kent State); QB Tyler Sheehan, WR Corey Partridge, WR Freddie Barnes, RB Anthony Turner, OLB Erique Dozier, DE Diyral Briggs, S P.J. Mahone (Bowling Green); QB Aaron Opelt, WR Stephen Williams, LB Archie Donald, SS Barry Church (Toledo); QB Chris Jacqueman, WR Andre Jones, LT Chris Kemme, OLB Doug Williams, SS Bryan Williams (Akron); QB Theo Scott, WR Taylor Price, TE Andrew Mooney, DE Jameson Hartke (Ohio); RB Justin Anderson, QB Dan Nicolson, WR Britt Davis, DE Larry English (Northern Illinois); QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West, WR Jamarko Simmons, CB Londen Fryar, FS Louis Delmas (Western Michigan); QB Alex DiMichele, WR Bruce Francis, WR/KR Travis Shelton, C Alex Derenthal, WR Jason Harper, OLB Amara Kamara, DE Leyon Azubuike, SS Dominique Harris (Temple); QB Drew Willy, RB James Starks, WR Naaman Roosevelt, SS Davonte Shannon (Buffalo); MLB Daniel Holtzclaw, RB Dwayne Priest (Eastern Michigan)

Conference Overview: When the BCS first formed the MAC was one of the better non-BCS conferences. “The Cradle of Coaches” played anyone, and could knock off any big name team on any given Saturday. Such has not been the case the last few years, and 2007, may have been the worst yet. Last year MAC schools posted a combined 5-37 record against BCS opponents, and those came versus Iowa, Syracuse, Minnesota, and Iowa State twice. Overall they had a 12-42 record against FBS programs and lost all three of the bowl games they appeared in. Central Michigan, Ball State, and Bowling Green gave up an absurd 55.3 points a game, and the league was thoroughly embarrassed. There will be plenty of chances for the MAC schools to redeem themselves, but the top programs must get at least one or two big wins in 2008 to get their conference some respect.

Central Michigan is one of those top programs who will need to lead by example in, and out, of conference. The Chippewas are going for their third consecutive MAC title, which hasn’t been done since Marshall won 4 in a row from 1997-2000, and will have the explosive offense to do it. They will be led by MAC Offensive Player of the Year, and Tim Tebow clone, QB Dan LeFevour. Only Tebow had a better year last year after LeFevour accounted for 4,774 yards and 47 total touchdowns. He will only be entering his junior year, and will have all of his weapons back, so an improvement on last years’ numbers is realistic. WRs Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown combined for 192 catches and 2,135 yards with 16 scores in 2007. Brown was the conference Freshman of the Year as he led the team with 2,267 all-purpose yards. With a deep stable of running backs behind LeFevour, Central Michigan will be very explosive and put up a lot of points. Whether they take down a BCS opponent or not will be up to the defense. They return eight starters but they gave up 37 points and 460 yards a game. It is amazing that this team even won the MAC with this bad of a defense. They gave up almost 53 points per game in out of conference contests, including giving up 44 to FCS program North Dakota State. The Chippewas have won two consecutive MAC crowns but needs a win over a BCS school to be taken seriously. A good showing against Georgia on September 6th will help, but a win at either Purdue or Indiana later in the year would do wonders for the program. Once again it all comes down to the defense. If they are even a middle of the pack unit in 2008, they will win a third straight MAC title, and knock off one of those teams.

It may be really hard to fathom, but one of the best offenses to be found in the country in 2008 can be found in Muncie, Indiana. Ball St. returns nine starters from a unit that features at least three future pros, and averaged 31.5 points and 434 yards a game in 2007. Junior QB Nate Davis, first of the NFL threesome, developed by leaps and bounds last season, throwing for 3,667 yards and 30 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. Davis is still young, has a big arm, and has already caught the eye of NFL scouts. WR Dante Love caught 100 passes from Davis in 2007, and still averaged almost 14 yards a catch, finishing with 1,398 yards. TE Darius Hill joins Love to give Davis two elite pass catchers he can trust. Hill is a big target (6’6” 236) and one of the most productive tight ends in the country. He caught 65 passes for 926 yards and 11 touchdowns. All three are future NFL players and will have big seasons for Coach Brady Hoke. Just like Central Michigan, Ball State is coming off a very bad defensive season. They were atrocious against the run, giving up 204 yards a game. They were decent against the pass, and tended to tighten up in the red zone, so they were 68th in scoring defense at 28 points per. They will need to rebuild their defensive but since they were 106th in the nation against the run in 2007, they may have been happy to see some of players leave. A solid secondary gives them hope that a big turnaround will occur. Even if the Cardinals get off to a good start, a two game stretch at the end of the year will determine their season. Consecutive road games against Miami (OH) and Central Michigan in mid-November will determine whether David Letterman’s alma mater has a chance to play for the MAC title, or earn another International Bowl appearance.

On the completely opposite end of the spectrum from Central Michigan and Ball State is Miami (OH). The Redhawks had a pretty good defense in 2007, but it was their offense that let them down time and time again. Despite their offense scoring only 19 points a game, which was 108th in the nation, Miami finished 6-7 and played for the MAC title. Coach Shane Montgomery has to wonder what could’ve been if he only had a top offense last year. There is optimism however, as eight starters return and they began to show some life at times toward the end of the year. The defense is potentially the best in the MAC so the offense just has to be good enough. Speaking of the defense, Miami will have nine starters back from a unit that gave up just 20 points a game in 8 conference games, and ranked 25th in the nation against the pass. One of the best linebacking corps in the entire country will try to lead them to a conference title this year. OLBs Caleb Bostic and Clayton Mullins and MLB Joey Hudson are all good against the run and pass, and are athletic enough to keep up with some of the more powerful offenses. Mullins is the best of the bunch and will be playing on Sundays next fall. Miami is in the weaker of the two MAC divisions so their schedule is a little more favorable. Central Michigan does not appear and Ball St. is at home. They are head shoulders above the rest of East Division as long as their offense shows up. A second consecutive trip to the MAC Championship game is a good possibility.

Bowling Green had a good year spoiled by Tulsa in GMAC Bowl in January by a score of 63-7. Not that many people thought they would have reached eight wins and the postseason, so the bowl loss aside, the coaches should be pleased entering 2008. Coach Gregg Brandon is a solid 38-24 over five seasons and always has the Falcons in the hunt year after year. This season could potentially be one of their better ones and remind some of when Urban Meyer manned the sidelines. With 17 starters back, they have the experience necessary to win close games, and have one of the better schedules in the MAC. QB Tyler Sheehan threw for 3,264 yards and 23 touchdowns in just his sophomore year, and could have an even better 2008. Solid skill players will make this offense dangerous, but will need to find 3 replacements on the line. They should be improved and should build on their 2007 performance when they scored 30 points a game. The defense will bring back nine starters and should be even more improved than the offense. They allowed 32 points and 424 yards a contest last season, but consists of just as much talent as anyone in the conference, and they are ready to take a big step forward. They forced 26 turnovers and had 32 sacks in 2007, so they can make things happen. If Bowling Green can get by a difficult stretch at their beginning of their schedule healthy, they should be in good position to make a conference run. Road trips to Pittsburgh, Boise State, and Wyoming are sandwiched around a home game against Minnesota to begin the season. Most of the conference bottom feeders make up their MAC slate so they should challenge for the postseason down to the last weekend.

Fans in Kalamazoo, Michigan were having a good time rooting for their Western Michigan team in 2005 and 2006, posting a 15-9 record, and having 2 straight winning seasons for the time in a long time. Bill Cubit arrived at Western Michigan after the 2004 season, when the Broncos just finished a 1-10 season, and were one of the worst programs in all the country. All Cubit did in just one year time is add six wins to the win total, and bring a new attitude to the entire school. They slipped a bit to 5-7 last year, but with 16 starters back, a return to the winning ways is expected. Cubit, a former offensive coordinator, will be armed with one of the best quarterback/running back/wide receiver tandems in the conference with QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West, and WR Jamarko Simmons. Hiller threw for 3,021 yards and 20 touchdowns, West rushed for 848 yards, and Simmons caught 84 passes for 980 yards. Improvement is expected by all three in 2008, and if the Broncos get it, they will be in the hunt for a bowl. The defense was just okay in 2007, but does bring back nine starters, including one of the best corners in the country in Londen Fryar. Fryar, the son of former NFL WR Irving Fryar, broke up 16 passes last year, and is a two-time first team All-MAC selection. He should be a first day pick in next year’s draft. He is going to need his teammates to play better if he is going to make a bowl though. They do face a tough road ahead as WMU must travel to Temple (that’s right Temple), Central Michigan, and Ball State. This may derail their chance to a conference title. They do have the talent to compete for one, but must get improvement from both sides of the ball to make it happen.

For the first time since 1990 the Temple Owls showed some life in 2007. Although they only finished with 4 wins, they were competitive all season, and had chances to win a few others. For a program that is a combined 28-130 since 1993, this was a welcome sight. Temple was so bad that the Big East kicked them out of the conference. Now they are one of the hottest picks to be a sleeper in this conference. Former Virginia defensive coordinator Al Golden was hired to start over and build a program from scratch, and that is exactly what he is doing. There are hasn’t been this much excitement over Temple football since Paul Palmer was doing The Nestea Splash. Not that they are exactly there yet, but Golden has this team believing they can win and challenge for a bowl. With 21 starters back you will see marked improvement over last year. The defense was the best in the MAC in pass and total defense a year ago, and should be one of top units in the conference this fall. The offense will have to produce more than 16.4 points per game however, if they want to end their 29 year postseason drought. They only won one road game in 2007 so this is another area they must improve in. Golden has already done an amazing job in Philadelphia in what is one of the most difficult jobs in the country. Unfortunately for the school he will not be there long as he will be a hot coaching commodity in the off-season. But for now watch Temple return from the dead and shoot for a bowl.

When a team has the best running back in the league they are never far out of the race. RB Eugene Jarvis gained 1,669 yards for a 3-9 Kent St. team in 2007. The diminutive Jarvis (5’5” 170) is quick and powerful and reminds me of former Kansas State RB Darren Sproles. Heading into the 2008 season the Golden Flashes are going to have to come up with a better complimentary passing game, and find a way to cause more turnovers if they want to go from worst to first. The 2007 season started well as they won 3 out of their first 5 games before the wheels fell off and they lost their last seven. With Jarvis, and 14 other starters back, Coach Doug Martin is hoping this will be the year Kent State make it to a bowl for the first time since 1972. When you consider this is a longer drought than Temple that really says something about this program. The defense was only mediocre last season, but didn’t get any help from the offense as short possessions and turnovers left the defense on the field a lot and with short fields. The Flashes have a difficult conference road schedule with trips to Ball State, Miami (OH), and Bowling Green on tap. Of course all they have to do is take care of business at home, and steal a road game, and a winning season and postseason appearance will be a possibility.

Toledo, one of the dominant MAC programs in the earlier half of the decade, has fallen on hard times the last 2 seasons. After averaging almost nine wins a year from 2002-05, they have only been able to muster a total of ten the last two. When you add the point shaving scandal that has rocked the program and you can say Toledo has seen better days. Offense was their strong suit in 2007 and should be again with QB Aaron Opelt throwing to such big play receivers as WR Stephen Williams. Williams, one of the better receivers you never heard of, is a big target (6’5” 197) who finished with 73 catches for 1,169 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has the size to outreach corners and the speed to outrun them once he is in the open field. The Rockets scored an impressive 33 points a game, but allowed an embarrassing 39 points per. Near the bottom in almost every major defensive category in 2007, the coaching staff is going to have figure out what the problems were and fix them if they have any chance of returning to their past glory. They have 13 starters returning but are thin where it’s most important, on the defensive line. They gave up 215 rushing yards a game and desperately needs this unit to get better quickly. Junior strong safety has good size (6’3” 212) and is a solid mid-round prospect. If he shows more speed he could move up on a lot of draft boards. Toledo must face some of the stronger teams in the conference, but Ball State, Central Michigan, Miami (OH), and Bowling Green all come to the Glass Bowl. They were 5-2 there in ’07 and if they can finish 2008 with a similar record at home, they may have something to say about who wins the conference.

In the two seasons since Akron won the MAC Championship they have recorded a 9-15 combined record. A stale offense and a sieve defense were the main culprits last year. Akron finished no better than 90th in the four major team offensive categories, and averaged a total of only 312 yards per contest. All-MAC LT Chris Kemme heads a quality offensive line and is back for his senior year protecting QB Chris Jacquemain’s blindside. Kemme is a mountain of a man and has good feet and will be another MAC offensive lineman to get a shot at the next level. Jacquemain will continue to be a work in progress. He flat out looked lost at times in 2007, and the Zips may need him as his biggest challenger for the job Carlton Jackson decided to transfer. It may be a long year for the offense. The defense wasn’t all that much better last year and only welcome back 4 starters.  Already bad against the run, giving up 184 yards a game, the Zips will also need to replace their entire secondary. They are in such dire straits back there that they moved former all conference running back Bryan Williams to safety. In a conference full of good passers this is not what Coach J.D. Brookhart needed entering his fifth year. With a tough early schedule a bad start is a given, but if they figure out some of their problems on either side of the ball, they could go on a run once they hit conference play. However, another 4 or 5 win season is more likely.

After taking Ohio to the GMAC Bowl, and 9 wins, in the 2006 campaign, Coach Frank Solich was expected to keep the program up in the elite of the MAC. Unfortunately his team could only get to 6-6 and failed to make a bowl. Now entering 2008 expectations are not quite as high, even with 14 starters back, but this may work to their advantage. Solich, who had to follow legendary coach Tom Osborne at Nebraska, knows a little about expectations. He posted a 58-19 record over his 6 years in Lincoln but was fired after he couldn’t keep the Huskers where Osborne had taken them. Things are a little different in Athens, Ohio however, and Solich will be given every chance to get the Bobcats back to a bowl game. His first order of business in 2008 is to find replacements at quarterback and running back. Gone is all-time school rushing leader Kalvin McRae and there is no clear cut replacement. Solich figured he would start junior college transfer Theo Scott at quarterback, but after fellow junior Boo Jackson completed 16 out of 20 in the spring game, he was delivered a quandary. Ohio was near the bottom of the conference rankings in defense and there’s a good chance they will struggle again this year. Six of their first 8 games are on the road and the high powered offense of Ohio State, Central Michigan, and Northwestern all await. A thin team and a difficult schedule will keep Solich and Ohio down again in 2008, but with only 9 senior starters, light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.

After being the most consistent MAC program this decade, posting seven consecutive winning seasons from 2000-06, Northern Illinois went into the tank last year only winning two games. Injuries and the loss of star RB Garrett Wolfe combined to be just too much for them to handle. Now they look forward the down expectations and believe they can revert to their form from 2000-2007 and get back to a bowl. Eighteen starters return and they could potentially have a vastly improved defense. Almost everyone is back from what was a young defense in 2007, and new Coach Jerry Kill will lean heavily on this unit to keep the Huskies in games. The offense, led by RB Justin Anderson, was one of the worst in the country last year scoring only 19 points a game. It looks like they should have a good offensive line, and will be able to run the ball, but the development of QB Dan Nicholson will be imperative if they want to make bowl again. In his defense he was supposedly bothered a bad shoulder for most of 2007, and this most responsible for his inconsistent play. The defense gave up 31 points a game in 2007, but at least sport the best defensive player in the conference in DE Larry English. English, who at 6’3” 254, is a phenomenal pass rusher who may be more suited as a linebacker in a 3-4 at the next level. He is worth watching and will be a hot prospect come draft time. I think the defense will be better in ’08, but the offense is really going to hold this team back. Since they have been good for so long, teams will not overlook the Huskies just because of one down year. They get 5 out of their 7 at home, so an improvement on last years two wins is also automatic.

Although Al Golden has received much praise for what he as already done at Temple, Turner Gill deserves equal, if not more credit, for what he has done at Buffalo. Buffalo was an incredibly awful 5-41 in the four seasons prior to Gill’s arrival, but registered 5 wins alone in 2007, just his second year on the job. They improved their win total by three from his first year and stayed in the Eastern Division hunt until late November. He also deserves more credit because of the different landscapes of the universities. Both were moribund programs when Golden and Gill took over their respective teams, but once thing Golden has over Gill is the location of the schools. Temple may have been awful, but at least they are in Philadelphia. Golden had more selling points to offer about coming to Temple. What’s in Buffalo? Why would anyone go to Buffalo? I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone who went to Buffalo. I’m sure it’s a nice campus and a good school, but what do you do there? The NFL’s Bills don’t even want to play all their home games there anymore. All in all, I think Golden is the better overall coach, but Gill is another hot commodity. He will have some talent to field this season however. RB James Starks has quietly transformed into one of the better sleeper players in the country. Starks has good size and speed, but must learn to not run so upright. He is a converted quarterback so he is still learning his craft. Sophomore SS Davonte Shannon is the star of the defense after recording 123 tackles, and garnering first team all conference honors as a freshman. Now this is a team that will not sleep on anyone anymore. They could be a better team this fall but a brutal non-conference schedule (@ Pitt, @ Missouri, home vs. UTEP), and a tougher conference schedule will prove to tough for this young team. The fact that Buffalo and Temple should battle for the Eastern Division in 2009, would’ve sounded crazy just 4 years ago.

I may have killed Buffalo a little earlier but I would still rather be there than Ypsilanti, Michigan. Recruits seem to think the same thing about Eastern Michigan as evident in there 19-51 record since 2002. Jeff Geryk is entering his fifth year at the helm of one of the toughest jobs in America. He has a 13-33 overall record but did show some improvement in ’07 getting to four wins, including a 48-45 stunner over Central Michigan in their season finale. Geryk hopes this win will give his team confidence entering the new year, but they just don’t have the talent or numbers to even compete in the MAC. A difficult schedule awaits as well with the likes of Michigan State and Maryland appearing on the non-conference, and they have to play 5 of their last 7 on the road. Even one this team NFL talent can still be found. MLB Daniel Holtzclaw has been the model of consistency for three years averaging 110 tackles per season, including a career high 125 stops in 2007. He’s more of a middle to late round pick, but is a tough football player, and should at least contribute on special teams. Baby steps should be the approach for Eastern Michigan. After winning three more games in 2007 than in 2006, the goal should be for the team to fight to get to .500 for the first time in years. Hope can spring from just one winning season but they have to get there first.

Predicted Finish:
   
Eastern Division: 1. Miami (OH)
                              2. Bowling Green
                              3. Temple
                              4. Kent State
                              5. Akron
                              6. Ohio
                              7. Buffalo

Western Division: 1. Central Michigan
                               2. Ball State
                               3. Western Michigan
                               4. Toledo
                               5. Northern Illinois
                               6. Eastern Michigan

Sun Belt Conference Preview

Favorite: Florida Atlantic

Dark Horse: UL-Monroe

Coach on the Hot Seat: Ricky Bustle (UL-Lafayette)- Bustle is entering his seventh seasons at the helm of the Ragin’ Cajuns sporting an overall record of 26-44. The program showed improvement in 2005 and 2006, combining for a 12-11 record and a share of the conference championship in 2005, but sunk to new lows last season finishing 3-9. That mark matched Bustle’s worst as head coach. Now the league is better from top to bottom and expectations have gone up for everyone. By this time he should have a solid foundation in place, but it does not show on the field. He will need to do more than just beat North Texas and Florida International in 2008 to keep his job.

Best Coach: Howard Schnellenberger (Florida Atlantic)- In my opinion one of the best coaches in the history of college football. Schnellenberger jumpstarted another little program in Florida you may have heard of, Miami, and has been a miracle worker at Florida Atlantic. The Owls just became a full Division 1 member in just 2006 and he already has led the Owls to a Sun Belt championship. With the most talented roster in the conference, a second is now expected. For as long as he stays there they will be a force in the Sun Belt, and a candidate to move to a bigger conference.

Best Program: Troy- Just as easy of a pick as Howard Schnellenberger is, the Troy program getting the nod as best in the Sun Belt may be even easier. In 4 seasons since joining the Sun Belt the Trojans have a conference best 27-21 record and one conference title. They were absolutely hosed in being left out of the bowl scene in 2007, finishing 8-4 and blowing out Oklahoma State. The fact that the Cowboys finished 6-6 and got a bid to the Insight Bowl, while Troy stayed home, illustrates how ridiculous the BCS is. Just as Boise State showed against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, some of these little guys can compete against some the these, alleged, superior programs. Troy whips Oklahoma State 41-23 in September, on NATIONAL TV mind you, finishes two games better than OSU, yet the mediocre team from the Big 12 gets the bid over a better team from the Sun Belt. That’s an injustice. Colorado and Alabama (who lost to Sun Belt member UL-Monroe, who lost to Troy) were two other 6-6 teams that didn’t deserve bowl bids over the Trojans. I got a little off track, but Troy has some holes to fill, but will battle Florida Atlantic for the title.

Top NFL Prospect: QB Rusty Smith (Florida Atlantic)- Smith was named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year in 2007 after throwing for 3,688 yards with 32 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. He has the size you look for (6’5” 215), and has shown a leader trait that not all players show. As a sophomore he led the Owls to eight wins, a Sun Belt championship, and a New Orleans Bowl victory over Memphis. He must work on his accuracy (58.7% in ’07) and put some weight on, but is still only a junior, and is a legitimate NFL prospect for 2010 Draft.

Newcomer: QB Riley Dodge (North Texas)- Dodge took a redshirt in ’07, but is now eligible to battle for the starting job for the Mean Green. The son of North Texas head coach Todd Dodge, Riley has played in this system for awhile now, and should be starting by the middle of the season, if not sooner. They like to pass and that is all he did in high school in Texas. North Texas does have a few weapons on their offense, most notably WR Casey Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald caught 111 passes for 1,322 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2007 alone, and should work well with Dodge. Both Dodge’s should also start a foundation that should turn this program around.

Five Biggest Games: Troy @ Florida Atlantic (10/7); Florida Atlantic @ UL-Monroe (10/25); Troy @ UL-Monroe (11/1); Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas State (11/22); Middle Tennessee State @ UL-Lafayette (12/3)

Players To Watch: QB Rusty Smith, RB Charles Pierre, WR Cortez Gent, TE Justin Harmon, DT Jervonte Jackson, MLB Frantz Joseph, CB Tavious Polo (Florida Atlantic); WR Mykeal Terry DT Dion Gales, OLB Boris Lee, DE Kenny Mainor, FS Sherrod Martin (Trot); QB Kinsmon Lancaster, WR LaGregory Sapp, WR Darrell McNeil, TE Zeek Zacharie, S Greg James, S Josh Thompson (UL-Monroe); QB Michael Desmoreaux, RB Tyrell Fenroy, OLB Antwyne Zanders, MLB Brenton Burkhalter (UL-Lafayette); QB Dwight Dasher, RB Desmond Gee, WR Patrick Honeycutt, MLB Danny Carmichael, CB Alex Suber (Middle Tennessee State); QB Corey Leonard, RB Reggie Arnold, LT Matt Mandich, MLB Ben Owens (Arkansas State); QB Riley Dodge, WR Casey Fitzgerald, OLB Craig Robertson (North Texas); QB Wayne Younger, RB A’Mod Ned, OLB Scott Bryant, SS Ashlyn Parker (Florida International)

Conference Overview: It didn’t take Howard Schnellenberger long to guide Florida Atlantic to a conference title. In just the program’s third year, the Owls not only won their first Sun Belt championship, but they also won their first bowl game. Both achievements made people notice FAU for the first time, and they look like they are not going anywhere. QB Rusty Smith may be the overall player in the conference and is only a junior. The future pro prospect will have weapons aplenty at his disposal to try and better last year’s offensive performance. They were 16th in the nation in passing yards a game and averaged 31 points per. RB Charles Pierre, WR Cortez Gent, TE Jason Harmon, and a very good offensive line, make this unit the best in the conference. The overall numbers for the defense were nothing to write home about, but most of the damage was done against Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Florida, Kentucky, and South Florida. They made up the Owls out of conference slate and forever skewed their numbers. Schnellenberger has brought in some good recruits on this side of the ball and they should begin to grow together. With a total of 19 starters back, Florida Atlantic is the team to beat heading into 2008, and could knock off a BCS team like Michigan St. or Minnesota.

As mentioned before Troy was completely screwed when they did not receive a bowl bid in 2007. Larry Blakeney guided his team to an 8-4 record and only lost one league game. Unfortunately for the Trojans it was to Florida Atlantic, who was then awarded the conference title and a bid to the New Orleans Bowl. They should definitely come out in 2008 with something to prove. Troy will welcome their entire offensive line back but will need help at the skill positions. Gone is team leader QB Omar Haugabook, who guided their offense to 34 points and 453 total yards a game. Sophomores Jamie Hampton and Tanner Jones will battle for the starting spot. The defense was the best in the Sun Belt last year and return seven starters, but must replace their best player in CB Leodis McKelvin. McKelvin was a diamond in the rough and wound up being selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. However, most of the unit that only allowed 15 points a game in conference play will be back. The biggest problem they will face is their nightmare schedule. They play 7 of their first 9 games on the road, with trips to LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Florida Atlantic included. They play their last 3 at home, but the damage may be done by then. Troy is always one of the best coached teams in the league, and will hang with anyone in the country. Inexperience at key positions, and that killer schedule, will be their downfalls and will have to fight for 6 wins.

Former Navy head man Charlie Weatherbie is heading into his sixth season as head coach of UL-Monroe. Weatherbie has compiled a 21-37 overall record in his tenure but potentially has his best team. Thirteen starters are back, including most of the skill positions, after having real up and down 2007. They lost to 2-10 North Texas yet defeated SEC member Alabama in Tuscaloosa. After beginning 0-4, they won six of their last eight to finish 6-6. Now UL-Monroe hopes some of those close losses they had in 2007 will turn into close wins, and they can make a run at the conference title. QB Kinsmon Lancaster has good options on the outside, but must get better throwing the ball. The Warhawks ranked 106th nationally in pass offense averaging only 177 yards a game. They will also have to find four new linemen to protect him, so the first few games may be an adventure. The defense wasn’t very spectacular either but has seven guys back, and hope they can shut some of their Sun Belt brethren down. With Florida Atlantic and Troy both at home, UL-Monroe has a chance to surprise people and come away with their first conference championship, and their first bowl since becoming a D-1 member. The passing game and offensive line play will be the main factors in how it all unfolds.

Other than having the best nickname in all of Division 1, UL-Lafayette is an otherwise drab program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have won just 26 games over the last six seasons, and haven’t been to a bowl since the 1970 Grantland Rice Bowl. In 2008, UL-Lafayette will go as far as their porous defense will take them. The best running game in the country will keep them in games. Both QB Michael Desmoreaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy both rushed for over a 1,000 yards last season, and Fenroy has actually done it the last three. Eight starters are back, including four fifths of the line, so expect more of the same. The defense was in the conversation for worst in the country last year allowing 36 points and 447 total yards a game. To make matters even worse most of the defensive line will need to be replaced, and for a unit that gave up an astounding 228 rush yards a game, this is not good. The linebacking corps will be the strong unit as all three starters are back, including All-Sun Belt candidate MLB Brenton Burkhalter. They will have to tighten up for the Cajuns to have any shot, but with the way they run the ball, maybe they’ll keep the opposing offenses off the field and steal a couple wins. A .500 record would be a success.

Middle Tennessee State has the distinction of starting a trend in college football in 2007. That trend was for everyone to score a lot of points on Louisville. The Cardinals were hyped going into 2007, but struggled mightily against the Blue Raiders. They won the game 58-42, but lost all national respect after their horrible showing on national television. MTSU looked like they were going to challenge for the conference title, but could only muster four conference wins. This was a bit of a disappointment following their co-championship the year earlier. Coach Rick Stockstill has done a decent job at the school in his two seasons, but will have too many new players to match their 2006 title. Only 10 starters return and have no time to work the new guys in gently as they face Troy in the season opener on August 28th. The youth is incredible on this team at the current time with as many as 10 freshmen and sophomores projected to start. Even though MTSU will not be in the hunt in 2008, the next 2 seasons are looking very promising.

Arkansas State has essentially broken even over the last three seasons. They are one game under .500 at 17-18 since 2005, but earned a Sun Belt championship and bowl berth in the 2005 season, so it balances out. A .500 record may be considered a success for a team that is desperate on the offensive line and secondary. The Red Wolves will have 11 total starters back but must replace eight out the nine starters from those 2 units. LT Matt Mandich, actually a good one, is the only players back in either unit. Arkansas State was solid in those 2 areas in 2007 averaging 176 yards per game on the ground, and allowed just 197 yards a game through the air, which ranked 19th nationally. It’s not very promising when you two areas of strength from the year before both need to be completely rebuilt. QB Corey Leonard and RB Reggie Arnold were both selected to the All-Sun Belt team, but can not be counted on to do everything. The defense was one of the better units in the Sun Belt ranking first in the conference it total defense. Too many holes, and the fact they play six of their last eight on the road, just spells doom for their 2008 season.

In coach Todd Dodge’s first year in the North Texas reclamation project was probably not as promising as he would’ve hoped, but at the same time they really don’t have too much lower to sink. After winning the first four Sun Belt championships from 2001-04, the Mean Green has posted a paltry 7-28 record. However, they made a good hire in Dodge, who as a former Texas high school coach, has deep roots in the talent rich state of Texas. This will give North Texas an advantage over every other school in the conference except Florida Atlantic. The state of Florida and Hall of Fame coach Howard Schnellenberger is a good draw for a lot of kids. Dodge installed a type of run and shoot offense, that put up a lot of yardage, but not many points. WR Casey Fitzgerald was the star producing PlayStation type numbers. In only 12 games he had 111 catches for 1,322 yards and 11 touchdowns. Dodge’s son Riley will battle for the top quarterback spot and is very familiar with his father’s offense. He will become the starter at some point. The defense however, needs so much work one year is not enough time. They ranked dead last in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 45 points per game. They gave up 66 or more three times, and held their opponents to under 30 just twice. Amazingly, they won both of those games. They sunk to new lows in 2007 losing their season finale to Florida International. In Dodge’s second year this will not be tolerated. He will turn this team around but it will take a few years.

Optimism abounds for Florida International as they enter the 2008 season after snapping their 23-game losing streak to North Texas in their season finale. After 2 ugly seasons, with not much good play from either side of the ball, they deserved to get one. Head Coach Mario Cristobal is trying to turn around what is currently the worst program in D-1. Although with a good recruiting class coming in, and a nice campus in Miami, it may be easier than you think to get some players in. They are just going to have to work in baby steps. If they can put some things together, an increase to three or four wins, would be a big positive step in the right direction for the program. They ranked 100th or worse in six out the eight major offensive and defensive categories including dead last in scoring offense with just 15 points a game. The good news is that improvement should be fairly easy as bad as they have been the last couple years. With only 6 senior starters the Panthers do have hope for the future, even if they won’t have much this season.

Predicted Finish: 1. Florida Atlantic
                             2. Troy
                             3. UL-Monroe
                             4. UL-Lafayette
                             5. Middle Tennessee State
                             6. Arkansas State
                             7. North Texas
                             8. Florida International

Conference USA Preview

Favorite: Tulsa

Dark Horse: East Carolina

Coach on the Hot Seat: Tommy West (Memphis)- In a conference full of new coaches, West draws the short end of the stick and leads this category. The elder statesman of conference coaches entering only his eighth season, West has compiled an overall tally of 41-44. Most of his success has come because of former running back DeAngelo Williams. Memphis won 24 of those games in a 3-year span when Williams was carving up opposing defenses. They are 17-31 in West’s other 4 years. They got back to a bowl in 2007, but lost by 17 points to Florida Atlantic in the New Orleans Bowl. Not exactly the kind of accomplishment the athletic department looks for. The Tigers have a lot of talent on paper, but will have to win 8 or 9 games for his seat to cool down.

Best Coach: Todd Graham (Tulsa): Graham has only a 17-10 career record in 2 seasons, but all he has done in those 2 years is take Rice to its first bowl in 45 years and lead Tulsa to 10 wins and an appearance in the C-USA Championship. A very sophisticated offensive mind, Graham has shown that he is winner and can make any program better. Tulsa’s offense ranked #1 in the country gaining 544 total yards per game, and with nine starters back, more of the same is expected, and Graham will reach his third bowl in as many seasons. The real question is, how long will he be here?

Best Program: Southern Mississippi - The main reason that the Golden Eagles are in this position is because of Jeff Bower. In 17 seasons as head coach Bower had a 119-83-1 record, and had the program highly regarded, even outside the non-BCS conference. The school decided to change directions after 2007 and hired Larry Fedora. Fedora had a prolific offense at Oklahoma State and walks into a good situation. Because of the appeal that this program has garnered over the years, recruiting has been a strong point, and they even bagged 5-star WR DeAndre Brown in the off-season. Fedora should be able to keep the tradition going in Hattiesburg.

Top NFL Prospect: CB Joe Burnett (Central Florida)- Not only does Burnett have adequate size (5’11” 185), he is also extremely battle tested having started the last years 3 for the Knights. He is a shutdown corner and has good ball instincts, which resulted in 6 picks his junior year. Burnett also has averaged 13.2 yards on 70 career punt returns, with three going for scores. His biggest came against Tulsa in the C-USA Championship game, when he brought a punt back 83 yards in UCF’s win over the Golden Hurricane. He will be a nickel corner and special teams contributor right away as a rookie next year in the NFL.

Newcomer: WR DeAndre Brown (Southern Miss)- This is an easy one. It’s not too often that a legitimate 5-star recruit goes anywhere outside of a BCS conference. Brown picked USM over pretty much everyone in the country and most notably Ole Miss. Brown had been slated to go to Ole Miss, but opened his recruiting back up when the Rebels fired coach Ed Oregeron. The Rebels loss is the Eagles gain, a really big gain. Brown (6’6” 208) dwarfs over corners and safeties, and should be an immediate contributor, especially on goal line situations.

Breakout: TE Cody Slate (Marshall)- I realize this must seem like an odd pick for a breakout season when Slate had 66 catches for 818 yards and 5 scores in 2007, but Slate will have more of a national impact in 2008. Slate is only a junior and has shown flashes of being on of the best tight ends in the country. He is more of a receiving tight end and does need work on his blocking. This will come with time, and he would also serve himself well by trying to add 20 pounds to his listed 220 pound frame. Anytime when one of best at a position is a complete unknown it is worth a shot to try and get his name out there. A 1,000 yard season is inevitability in one of the next 2 years.

Five Biggest Games: Houston @ East Carolina (9/27); Memphis @ East Carolina (10/18); Central Florida @ Tulsa (10/26); Tulsa @ Houston (11/15); Central Florida @ Memphis (11/22)

Players To Watch: RB Tarrion Adams, FB Charles Clay, WR Brennan Marion, WR Trae Johnson, G Justin Morsey, S Ray Roberts, FS Charles Davis (Tulsa); QB Case Keenum, QB Blake Joseph, TE Mark Hafner, LT SirVincent Rogers, DE Phillip Hunt, S Kenneth Fontenette (Houston); RB Curtis Steele, WR Duke Calhoun, DT Freddie Barnett, DT Clinton McDonald, FS Brandon Patterson (Memphis); RB Phillip Smith, WR Rocky Ross, DE Bruce Miller, CB Joe Burnett, CB Johnell Neal, SS Sha’reff Rashad (Central Florida); QB Patrick Pinckney, WR Jamar Bryant, DE C.J. Wilson, OLB Ouentin Cotton, FS Van Eskridge (East Carolina); RB Damion Fletcher, WR DeAndre Brown, TE Shawn Nelson, MLB Gerald McRath, CB C.J. Bailey (Southern Mississippi); QB Trevor Vittatoe, WR Jeff Moturi, C Robby Felix, OLB Adam Vincent, CB Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith (UTEP); RB Chubb Small, WR Darius Passmore, TE Cody Slate, WR Emmanuel Spann, DE Albert McClellan, DE Ian Hoskins, FS C.J. Spillman (Marshall); QB Kevin Moore, WR Jeremy Williams, DE Reggie Scott, OLB David Skehan (Tulane); QB Justin Willis, RB DeMyron Martin, WR Emmanuel Sanders, OLB Will Bonilla, CB Bryan McCann (SMU); QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard, LT Scott Mitchell, OLB Brian Raines, FS Andrew Sendejo (Rice); QB Joe Webb, WR Frantrell Forest, OLB Joe Henderson, FS Will Dunbar (UAB)

Conference Overview: The current state of C-USA is reminiscent of the WAC in the 1980’s and 1990’s. A lot of prolific offenses and some of the worst defense you will ever see. Even the good teams have trouble stopping opponents. A year ago 7 out the 12 conference teams finished in the top 54 in scoring, and eight were in the top 51 in total offense. Amazingly, on the flip side, eight finished 90th or worse in scoring defense. If offense is your thing this conference should be one for you to pay attention to once again in 2008. In fact, it seems whatever team can field the best defense may have a shot to win the whole conference.

Speaking of high powered offenses, Tulsa averaged 41 points and a nation leading 544 yards a game. First year Coach Todd Graham and his Golden Hurricane rode this unit all the way to a conference championship game appearance, and a GMAC Bowl victory. They will welcome back their top 4 rushers and top six pass catchers from a year ago. The only main weapon from that unit that isn’t back is record setting QB Paul Smith. Smith finished 2007 with the fourth best passing rating that included 5,065 yards and 47 touchdowns. He ran the offense masterfully and will be very difficult to replace. It looks like senior David Johnson will have the first chance. The amount of weapons should make the transition short and will enable them to challenge for the league title. WR Brennan Marion was voted Newcomer of the Year, over teammate Charles Clay, after leading the nation with a 31.9 yard per catch average. Clay was just as exciting, as the 6’3” 222 sophomore fullback accounted for 1,327 yards (1,024 yards receiving) with 8 scores, and has incredible speed for his size. Both look like future stars. Along with having one of the best offenses in the country, Tulsa also had one of the worst defenses. They were best statistically in rushing defense, as they ranked 90th in the country giving up 185 yards a game. That’s right; I said that was their best ranking. As good as they were last year, they would have been even better if they would’ve gotten much from their defense. They were especially bad in the games they lost giving up an average of 49.5 points a game in those 4 games. They are going to have to rebuild their front seven in a hurry if they want to make it to their third C-USA Championship game in four years. Either way they will easily be one of the more entertaining teams in the NCAA.

Since Houston went 3-8 in the 2004 season they have posted a 24-15 record with three consecutive bowl appearances. The year that may have been most impressive was 2007 when coach Art Briles found a replacement for star QB Kevin Kolb, and they wound up winning eight games and playing in the Texas Bowl. After the season Briles decided to also leave and take the head coaching job at Baylor. Kevin Sumlin enters as head coach after being the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Sumlin will first have to deal with a quarterback controversy between QBs Case Keenum and Blake Joseph. They split time last year, even rotating series by series at one point. The pair combined for 3,583 yards and 23 touchdowns, but Sumlin is going to have to choose one, and one only, to play. There are some voids at the skill positions, but the new guys have played, so the offensive drop-off should be minimal. The Cougar defense has eight starters back and a chance to be one of the better units in the country. DE Phillip Hunt, who had 10.5 sacks in 2007, is a good pass rusher and will be an interesting pro prospect. They may have given up 29 points per game but they did tighten up as a unit in the fourth quarter a year ago. Only Marshall and Tulane were able to score more than a touchdown in the last stanza against Houston’s defense. Overall they gave up an average of 4.9 points per 4th quarter. The Cougars catch a break in the schedule department. Of the top tier teams in the conference only two make an appearance on their schedule, East Carolina and Tulsa. Memphis, Central Florida, and UTEP all could be dangerous in 2008, and none are on the list of teams Houston plays. If Sumlin can prove he can handle the head coaching job, and the defense plays like it’s the fourth quarter all the time, Houston has a chance for 10 or 11 wins this year. Because of the weak schedule they will be in the hunt all year.

Memphis started 2-5 in 2007, but adjusted nicely and won 5 out of their six regular season games and earning a bowl bid. Unfortunately for the Tigers they went to the New Orleans Bowl against a Sun Belt team. They had trouble against the Sun Belt conference last year posting a 0-3 mark which included a 44-27 to Florida Atlantic in the bowl game. After finishing 2-10 in the 2006 season this was still measured as success. Now with 16 starters back, and potentially the best defense in the conference, Memphis fans think they could surprise some people and challenge for the league top spot. Coach Tommy West will first choose between Arkelon Hall and Matt Malouf take over for Martin Hankins lining up under center. Whoever West decides to go with will have one advantage: a deep and talented receiving corps. They also have the tallest group in the country with WR Duke Calhoun at 6’4”, WR Steven Black at 6’3”, and Carlos Singleton at 6’8”. Singleton used that height to catch 11 touchdowns, most in red zone situations. The Tigers should have a decent line and will be able to move the ball. The defense was beaten up repeatedly in 2007, but was relatively young. They will have 9 guys back on this side of the ball alone and are expecting major improvement. DTs Freddie Barnett and Clinton McDonald are both very tough in the middle and may the leaders this unit needs to carry their weight. The schedule sets up pretty nicely for this possible sleeper. UCF and Southern Miss both travel to Memphis and the only tough conference road game is an October 18th tilt against East Carolina. With a favorable schedule, and an experienced team back, Memphis only needs a quarterback to reach 9 wins, and a conference title.

If RB Kevin Smith returned to Central Florida for his senior season they would be the favorites for the league title. After rushing for the second most yards in NCAA history (2,567 yards), Smith would have been the workhorse at the beginning of the season they could rely on as they break in a new quarterback. Instead, Smith declared for the NFL, and the Knights must replace both spots. RB Phillip Smith looked like a suitable replacement in limited action in 2007, but the quarterback is the bigger question. Michael Greco and Joe Weatherford will battle for the spot and neither has much experience. Because of these holes, UCF will go as far as their defense will take them. They have nine starters back on this side of the ball including the conferences’ best secondary led by future pro CB Joe Burnett. They will have to find replacements for the left side of their line, but the rest of the unit could be the top of C-USA. Coach George O’Leary usually does a good job with his out of conference schedule, and this year is no different. UCF will host South Florida and travel to Boston College and Miami. They may not win all of these but it will get them tuned up for conference play. In conference, UCF has road dates set at Tulsa and Memphis, and draw Southern Miss and East Carolina in Orlando. A repeat conference title is a long shot, but their defense will keep them in the hunt all year long.

East Carolina was a pleasant surprise, riding RB Chris Johnson to eight wins, and an impressive 41-38 victory over Boise St. in the Hawaii Bowl. Johnson led the nation in all-purpose yards, including 1,423 on the ground, but like Smith from UCF, he also left school early, and was a first round pick of the Titans. Not only do they have to fill those big shoes, they also have to decide whether Rob Kass or Patrick Pinckney will be the starting quarterback. It will all come down to how coach Skip Holtz wants to fill Johnson’s void. He could start Pinckney who is more of runner and will take some of Johnson’s yards, or go with Kass and throw more. Kass is about 4 inches and 60 pounds bigger than Pinckney, and has a much bigger arm. When they throw they will have All-C-USA WR Jamar Bryant on the outside. Major improvement is expected from a defense that allowed 30 points and 431 yards a game. They return nine starters including all conference candidates DE C.J. Wilson, OLB Quentin Cotton, and FS Van Eskeridge. Their biggest weakness will be the secondary where the Pirates will be looking for a new corner and strong safety. Considering they were 114th in the nation giving up 289 yards per game through the air, and allowed 26 touchdown throws, this area will need to step up. Coach Holtz and East Carolina face a brutal non conference slate with dates against Virginia Tech, West Virginia, North Carolina State, and Virginia looming. Conference trips to Southern Miss and UCF and home games versus Houston and Memphis, make this schedule one of the toughest in the conference. East Carolina should be very dangerous, but with such a difficult schedule, they could be a pretty good football team and finish 6-6. Two straight bowl appearances will be a difficult task.

For the first time in 17 seasons someone other than Jeff Bower will be manning the Southern Miss sidelines in 2008. Larry Fedora came to Hattiesburg after having one of the most exciting and balanced offenses at Oklahoma St. As offensive coordinator of the Cowboys in 2007, Fedora led an offense that was 7th nationally in total offense averaging 243.2 yards both rushing and passing. You can’t get anymore dangerous and balanced than that. With plenty of talent on this side of the ball already in place, Fedora will need his defense to pick up where they left off in 2007 and keep points off the board. All conference running back Damion Fletcher has started since his arrival in Hattiesburg, and has rushed for 2,974 yards in his first 2 seasons. He only needs 622 more to become the all time leading rusher in Golden Eagles history. They will also get a big boost from prep freshman DeAndre Brown. Brown is one of the biggest recruiting coups in recent history, coming to Southern Miss with a 5-start rating. At 6’6” Brown will make an immediate impact, especially on the goal line. USM may have to replace their entire defensive front, but the back seven will be good enough to be counted on for the season. Conference USA’s Defensive Player of the Year MLB Gerald McRath is back for his junior year after recording 139 tackles in 2007, and will be expected to be even better this year. The schedule will blow no one away with trips to UCF and Memphis on the horizon and a home game against East Carolina, but the remainder is more than manageable. Fedora took over a good situation and immediately made it better with the acquisition of Brown. If defense can play as well as they did in 2007 the Eagles will have plenty to say about whom finishes as the conference champion.

Mike Price has had an up and own tenure at UTEP. He followed two 8-4 seasons to begin his career in El Paso with a 5-7 record in ’06, and an even worse 4-8 in 2007. Price hasn’t heard any whispers about his job security at this point, but with another 4 or win 5 win season, some people will not keep their mouth shut any longer. He will have 12 starters back including the best young quarterback in the league. QB Trevor Vittatoe threw for 3,101 yards as a freshman, which was the second most in the country for a first year player. He played his best against C-USA foes, averaging 297.5 yards per game in conference play. The running game has some big shoes to fill as RB Marcus Thomas has moved on. Oregon transfer Terrell Jackson is the Miners’ leading returning rusher with 202 yards, and will be given the first chance to replace Thomas. Vittatoe will have a good receiving group led by Jeff Moturi and will keep UTEP in games. The defense is a completely different story altogether. Although seven starters are back, this unit gave up 37 points and over 500 yards a game in 2007. The Miners lost games in 2007 where they scored 42, 31, 48, and 30 points. When you give up at least 34 points in each of their last 8 games, and nine overall, chances for a successful season become slim. The toughest league schedule will not help matters for UTEP. Road games at Southern Miss, Tulsa, Houston, and East Carolina coupled with a home game against UCF makes this schedule the toughest of any conference team. With only 8 senior starters it looks like Price will have to wait one more year to get the Miners back to the postseason.

It wasn’t all that long ago that Marshall was winning Division I-AA championships or MAC crowns on an annual basis. Players such as Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, and Byron Leftwich brought a winning attitude and tradition to Huntingdon, West Virginia. All of this has been lost to the current crop of Thundering Herdsmen over the last 4 years. An 18-29 combined record since sums it all up. Marshall got off to an embarrassing 0-7 start in 2007 before winning 3 of their last five. Coach Mark Snyder will point to the finish as a rallying cry heading into 2008. They will have a slew of weapons on offense, but just following the trend of this conference, the defense needs some major work. RBs Chubb Small and Darius Marshall team up WRs Emmanuel Spann, Darius Passmore, and E.J. Wynn and TE Cody Slate, to form one of the best skill groups in the league. Mark Cann or Brian Anderson will get the nod and have the pleasure to work with these guys. Whoever gets the call will have to make up for the loss of last season’s starter Bernard Morris. Morris was very versatile and accounted for 3,637 total yards in 2007. With the amount of talent, it should be a simple task to be productive for the new starter. The defense was bad in 2007, allowing 34 points and 451 yards a game. They gave up 191 rushing yards per game and gave up at least 31 points in 9 out the teams 12 games. They should be much better in 2008 with the return of eight starters, not including 2006 conference Defensive Player of the Year DE Albert McClellan, who missed last year with a knee injury. He recorded 11 sacks and 19 tackles for a loss in 2006, and should give the Herd an element that they were lacking in 2007. They have plenty of road blocks on the schedule that will keep them from a bowl for fourth straight year. Home games against Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, UCF, and Tulsa and road trips to Wisconsin, Southern Miss, West Virginia, and East Carolina will prove too difficult for this young team to handle.

Tulane was more competitive in former UCLA coach Bob Toledo’s first season. They only won 4 games, but kept games against LSU and Mississippi State close. In 2008 they will have 16 starters back and are looking to make Green Wave football important again. Of course they will enter the season with major questions at quarterback and running back. As many as five guys will compete for a quarterback job that nobody seemed to want a year ago. The hole at running back was formed from an entire different reason. RB Matt Forte rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2007 and was drafted by the Bears in the second round of the 2008 draft. Andre Anderson was solid last year as a back-up and will have four guys returning on the line. They will need the running game to move the sticks for the offense to be effective this year. Just to keep the trend going, the defense will have to play better to get Tulane to their first bowl since 2002. This unit was solid against the run but will have to replace both defensive tackles. They will need some pressure up front to help a secondary that was ranked among the worst in the country in passing defense. Playing some of the pass happy teams of the C-USA, the defense will have to do better than the 288 yards allowed a game in 2007. After opening up with Alabama and East Carolina, Tulane will get a break and enter the soft portion of their schedule. They could win 4 out of these next 5 and build some confidence within the team. Unfortunately they finish with LSU, Houston, Tulsa, and Memphis all on the road, as 4 out their last 5. It looks like Toledo has the program moving in the right direction, but 2008 will not be the year they will make a bowl.

June Jones arrives at SMU after leading Hawaii to a 76-41 record over the last 9 years, including a BCS bowl trip last year. Jones brings hope and a new attitude to a program that hasn’t made a bowl since the 1984 Aloha Bowl. Of course the Mustangs had to deal with a little thing called the death penalty since as well. SMU won only one game last year after a hopeful 6-6 campaign in 2006, and that was against North Texas. On the bright side they did lose three games in overtime and a total of 5 by seven points or less. Even Jones’ first year these games are expected to turn into a couple more wins to try and build momentum for the program. QB Justin Willis should be the happiest player in the country having the opportunity to run Jones’ run-and-gun offense. He will have some weapons around him and should rebound from a disappointing sophomore season. The defense was awful in 2007 finishing 99th or worse in the four major defensive rankings. When you give up 40 points and 500 yards a game, you will not win too many. With all the problems they have defensively, CB Bryan McCann still stands out, and looks like a future pro prospect. The 6’ 176 junior showed shut down ability and good ball skills for SMU last year. It will take Jones some time to turn the corner, but he will. With all of the talent in Texas, I’d expect SMU to have a fairly quick turnaround and start challenging for the league title within 3 years.

If there is one team in this country that roots for another teams’ failure, it may be Rice. After Rice went to their first bowl since 1961 following the 2006 season, head coach Todd Graham jumped ship and headed to Tulsa. Not only did he leave after only one season, but he also went to a conference rival. The Owls lost their glory of 2006 and finished 2007 with a dismal 3-9 record. Even though Rice boasts one of the best quarterback and wide receiver tandems in the country in QB Chase Clement and WR Jarrett Dillard, the defense was so bad that the St. Louis Rams offense of 1999-2001 couldn’t have won. Rice ranked second to last in the country giving up 43 points and 511 yards a game, and were dead last allowing 312 yards passing a game. They gave up less than 30 in just 2 games in 2007, and gave up 40 or more in an incredible 8 games. The defense should be better, even just by accident in 2008. Even if the defense is just as bad, there will be a reason to keep an eye on Rice football for the entire season. Clement and Dillard have connected on 32 touchdowns passes in their careers, and will need just 6 more to break the NCAA record in 2008. As much as they throw, and as good as Dillard is, this should come in the first half of the season. This will be the only thing to keep your eye on, as they play 6 of their first 9 on the road, and will be out of contention by mid-October.

Conference USA isn’t exactly filled with some of the best programs in the country and this continues with UAB. In coach Neil Callaway’s first year, the Blazers went 2-10 and only beat one FBS team. They will need extensive work on both sides of the ball as they ranked 104th in total offense a year ago, and 114th in total defense. They will have 17 starters back, so the hope is that this team can grow together, and improve on both sides of the ball. UAB will have OLB Joe Henderson and FS Will Dunbar to watch, but will have an otherwise pretty non-descript roster that will not get many excited. They are located in a very talent rich area so Callaway has a chance to resurrect this program from the dead, but it is going to take a few years. Progress is what you look for in a rebuilding project like this, so even if they can win 3 or 4 games in 2008, this can still be looked at a positive sign. It will take everything to go right for them to make their first bowl trip since 2004.

Predicted Finish:
    East Division: 1. Memphis
                             2. Central Florida
                             3. East Carolina
                             4. Southern Mississippi
                             5. Marshall
                             6. UAB
   
West Division:     1. Tulsa
                              2. Houston
                              3. UTEP
                              4. Tulane
                              5. SMU
                              6. Rice

WAC Conference Preview

Favorite: Boise State

Dark Horse: Nevada

Coach on the Hot Seat: Hal Mumme (New Mexico State)- Mumme, the former head man at Kentucky, was brought in to try and change the culture of the program. Now going into his fourth year all he has to do is end the Aggies 47 year bowl drought to keep his job. Optimists will say that he won as many games last year as he did in his first two years combined, but realists will point out that two of those wins came against FCS teams and another came versus 1-11 Idaho. Even if they exceed expectations and win six games, that still will not be enough for Mumme to keep his job.

Best Coach: Chris Petersen (Boise State)- All Petersen has done in his two seasons in Boise is register a 23-3 record and a dramatic Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. Although they didn’t win the WAC last year for the first time since 2001, they still won 10 games in what was thought as a down year. He is a former offensive coordinator and his offense is always one of the more dangerous in the country, and the Broncos always seem to a well prepared football team. Dan Hawkins got this program rolling, but Petersen has already taken it to another level and show no signs of slowing.

Best Program: Boise State- There really isn’t much more to say than over the last 6 seasons, the Broncos have posted a 68-10 record, earned a BCS bowl victory over Oklahoma, and have won 5 out of the last 6 WAC crowns. Boise State is the best non-BCS program going currently, and has been able to sway good recruits to come to Boise for the last decade. Whether it’s a change of coaches, loss of personnel, or tough BCS foes on the schedule, nothing has been able to keep Boise from the top of the WAC or the national rankings. They have a great foundation in place and are set up for success for the near future.

Top NFL Prospect: RB Ian Johnson (Boise State)- Johnson is not blessed with good size and he doesn’t have lightning speed, but he is a workhorse and plays with a toughness that sets him apart. He definitely has a nose for the end zone scoring 45 touchdowns rushing over the last 3 years. Johnson has scored 3 or more touchdowns in 6 games over his career. He likes to run in between the tackles and showed his hands in 2007 catching a career best 25 passes. He was banged up last year and wasn’t quite as productive, compared to his breakout 2006 campaign. Johnson should have a very good senior season, but will only be rated in the mid-round territory because of his measureables.

Newcomer: QB Kellen Moore (Boise State)- Moore is a redshirt freshman so he is not new to the program, but this will be the first time opposing defenses see him. Boise has the best running back returning as well as a very deep and experienced receiving corps. All they need is for Moore to grow up fast and get them the ball. He will have to if they have a shot in the WAC. An early test at Oregon will give fans a good look at how far he has progressed, and the conference has never been known for its defense, so this should enable him to put up solid numbers.

Breakout: QB Colin Kaepernick (Nevada)- I absolutely love this kid and think he has the potential to be a first round pick one day. Kaepernick garnered WAC Freshman of the Year honors without starting the first four games. In nine starts he threw for 2,164 yards and ran for 568 yards while accounting for 25 touchdowns. Only threw 3 interceptions in 247 attempts in just his redshirt freshman season. He burst onto the scene in his first two starts against Fresno State and Boise State, gaining 400 total yards in both and accounting for 10 touchdowns. Has to put some weight on, especially since he likes to run, but shows a lively arm and a penchant to make plays. Will be a star beginning in 2008.

Five Biggest Games: Hawaii @ Fresno St. (10/4); Hawaii @ Boise St. (10/17); Nevada @ Fresno St. (11/7); Boise St. @ Nevada (11/22); Fresno St. @ Boise St. (11/28)

Players To Watch: QB Kellen Moore, RB Ian Johnson, WR Jeremy Childs, WR Austin Pettis, DE Mike T. Williams, CB Kyle Wilson, S Jeron Johnson (Boise State); QB Tom Brandstater, RB Ryan Matthews, TE Bear Pascoe, WR Marlon Moore, DT Jon Monga, SS Moses Harris (Fresno State); QB Colin Kaepernick, RB Luke Lippincott, WR Marko Mitchell, C Dominic Green, DT Mundrae Clifton, MLB Joshua Mauga (Nevada); QB Tyler Graunke, WR Malcolm Lane, G Keith AhSoon, OLB Blaze Soares, MLB Solomon Elimimian, OLB Adam Leonard (Hawaii); QB Chase Holbrook, WR Chris Williams, WR A.J. Harris, OLB Jamar Cotton, CB Davon House, S Derrick Richardson (New Mexico State); WR Kevin Jurovich, WR David Richmond, DT Jarron Gilbert, CB Christopher Owens, OLB Duke Ihenacho (San Jose State); RB Patrick Jackson, WR Philip Beck, DT D’Anthony Smith, OLB Quin Harris, FS Antonio Baker (Louisiana Tech); QB Nathan Enderle, RB Deonte Jackson, C Adam Korby, DE Josh Shaw, SS Shiloh Keo (Idaho); TE Rob Myers, DE Ben Calderwood (Utah State)

Conference Overview: A team from the WAC has crashed the BCS party in each of the last two years. In 2006 Boise State went 13-0 including a Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma, it one of the best endings to a football game I’ve ever seen. In 2007 undefeated Hawaii was completely overmatched getting smoked by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 41-10. There doesn’t appear to be a member of the conference that looks like they can run the table, so a third straight BCS payout is a long shot.

Three things have to go right for Boise State to win their sixth WAC title in their seventh season joining the conference in 2001. First redshirt freshman QB Kellen Moore has to run the offense efficiently, and try not to make mistakes and move the chains. Second, the coaches must find four new starters on the offensive line. The Broncos had one of the best lines in the country last year, but have a lot of inexperienced players penciled in there now. Third, the rush defense is going to have to get stingier, especially down by the goal line. This unit gave up 20 touchdowns on the ground in 2007 after giving up a combined 16 scores rushing in the two seasons prior. This may sound like a lot, but with Boise State currently the best non-BCS program, it seems like they can just reload rather than rebuild. All-WAC RB Ian Johnson is back after rushing for over 1,000 yards in each of the last 2 years. Every player who had more than 10 receptions in 2007 is also back. WR Jeremy Childs led the way with 82 catches, but his status is unclear after being suspended for the bowl game and for the spring practices. The defense has the most speed in the conference, but did have meltdowns last year, most notably the 41 points East Carolina dropped on them in the Hawaii Bowl. They are not without some star power however, with DE Mike T. Williams and CB Kyle Wilson preseason All-WAC candidates. They will have a young secondary, so it will be important for the front seven to be solid, and be able to put pressure on the quarterback. The out of conference schedule features a couple tests. The Broncos travel to Oregon the third game of the year, and also travel to Southern Miss two games later. The season home finale against Fresno State will most likely decide the WAC title. A conference titled is in their grasp, but this team will have to wait another year for a BCS game.

Fresno State rebounded nicely from their 4-8 debacle in 2006 to win nine games, and whipped Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. After the first three games it appeared that Fresno might be in trouble after losing two, and extended their cold streak to 14 losses in their last 19 games dating back to the 2005 season. Winning 8 of their last 10 sets high expectations for a team that is returning 16 starters, including 10 on offense. QB Tom Brandstater is the most experienced quarterback in the conference and will have a slew of weapons to work with. RBs Lonyae Miller, Ryan Matthews, and Clifton Smith are the best three headed attack in the country combining for 2,100 yards and 26 touchdowns. The receiving corps is deep and dangerous, with the best player being TE Bear Pascoe. Pascoe is Brandstater’s favorite target and it is hard to miss him as Pascoe is listed at 6’5” 260. He keeps the safeties honest in the middle which opens the outside up for the speed guys. After losing WAC Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Riley and their sack leader Tyler Clutts, the defense is a question mark. The secondary is a strength but it will be important for the defensive line to shut down the running game and get after the passer if the Bulldogs want to win the conference. DT Jon Monga and MLB Ben Jacobs are the only players on the front seven that are proven, and with the high powered running games of Boise St. and Nevada, this could be their Achilles ’ heel. As always Pat Hill’s philosophy of “anyone, anywhere” rears its head once again on the schedule. Trips to Rutgers and UCLA, and a home date against Wisconsin, will probably stop their BCS aspirations, but the WAC title is still a good possibility. Fresno State has 12 wins over BCS teams this decade, which is the most for anyone from a non-BCS conference, so they can’t be counted out in anyone of these match-ups.  The season finale at Boise State should determine the league champion. The offense will put points on the scoreboard, but the defense is going to have to play well for the Bulldogs to even compete for the WAC.

Maybe the most underrated offense in the land belongs to the Nevada Wolfpack. Coach Chris Ault’s attack features a steady and experienced offensive line, big and speedy receivers, and one of the better running attacks in the country. QB Colin Kaepernick is poised for a huge breakout season and has the talent to be a first round pick in the NFL. At 6’6” he has the height to see over defenses and has the speed to run around them. He needs to put some weight on his frame as he is listed at 215 pounds, and as much as likes to run, he must make sure he can withstand the hits. RB Luke Lippincott ran for over 100 yards in eight games last year on his way to finishing with 1,420 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also displayed his pass catching, hauling in 26 passes for 295 yards and another 3 scores. The offense is dangerous and will be able to put points up against anyone. The defense only welcomes back 4 starters from a squad that gave up 32 points and 415 yards per contest in 2007. New coordinator Ken Wilson is putting in a 4-3 scheme which many feel better meets the personnel they have. This unit will get thrown to the wolves early with back-to-back tilts against Texas Tech and Missouri in September. Both the Red Raiders and Tigers have incredible offenses and should rip apart the young defense Nevada will field. These early tests should also help in the long run, because they will not face another offense like those the rest of the year, and should be able to learn from their shortcomings as they move forward. There season will be determined by a four game stretch in late October into November. The Wolfpack must travel to Hawaii and then Fresno State in consecutive games and then host San Jose State and Boise State in the next two. A fourth consecutive bowl appears in their future, but so is a WAC crown if they can win three of those four games.

Hawaii followed the lead of their record setting offense in 2007, running through the regular season unscathed, and earning a BCS trip to the Sugar Bowl. Of course they were exposed in the bowl loss to Georgia, and showed to the country that they probably shouldn’t have been there. They deserved the chance, but their schedule was so weak a year ago that knowledgeable college football fans saw the Georgia beatdown coming. Now Hawaii will try to recapture some of their glory from 2007, but will have to do it with only 7 returning starters and a new head coach. June Jones moved on to SMU after compiling a 76-41 record in nine seasons on the island. Greg McMackin, the former defensive coordinator, was hired to replace Jones, and will have his work cut out for him. The Warriors will have to find replacements for record setting QB Colt Brennan and for their entire receiving corps, three of which had at least 1,100 receiving yards a year ago. The offensive line is the only area with some hope attached returning three of the starters. Hawaii is traditionally not known for their defense. In 2007 however, they were more than serviceable allowing 25 points and 347 yards a game. They had some bad games, but with the potent offense, they were on the field so much that they had a tendency to wear down. They do boast one of the best linebacking units in the country in OLBs Adam Leonard and Blaze Soares, and MLB Solomon Elimimian. Each is a candidate to be an All-WAC selection and will be a pro prospect. Soares has the most upside. Also unlike last year the out of conference schedule is unforgiving and features 5 games. Hawaii opens the season at Florida in The Swamp, then travels to Oregon State two weeks later, and draws Washington State and Cincinnati at home to wrap up the regular season. Add conference road trips to Fresno State and Boise State and it looks as if they might miss a bowl a year after making the BCS. With 13 games on the schedule it is possible for them to reach 7 wins, but there will not be the same amount of excitement around this program as there was in 2007.

A team that could surprise some people and challenge for a bowl in 2007 is Louisiana Tech. The other WAC Bulldogs won three more conference games last year than in ’06, and with teams like Hawaii and Boise State not as strong as they have been, a bowl bid is not out of the question in Ruston. Coach Derek Dooley exceeded expectations in his first year at the helm and appears as if he really has a clue to what he is doing. The offense got a big boost when former Georgia Tech signal caller Taylor Bennett announced he was transferring to Louisiana Tech. For a unit that has three good running backs, a good receiving corps, and three starters back on the line, this may be the break they needed to turn the corner. RB Patrick Jackson ran for 950 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2007, has good speed and runs with good power for a smaller guy. Sophomore WR Phillip Livas averaged 18 yards per catch as a freshman and is expected to give them the all important deep threat. A marked improvement over the 20 points per game they scored in 2007 is expected. Although the defense gave up 30 points and 424 yards a game it was still much improved than the 2006 squad. This unit was the worst in the country allowing 41 points and 483 yards a game that year. The front seven will be looking for replacements, but the coaches having emphasized getting better up front in recruiting the last couple seasons, the new guys should be better than what they had. OLB Quin Harris was named second team All-WAC in 2007 and will have to play even better for Tech this year. The secondary looks to be solid with FS Antonio Baker leading the way. Baker is the leading returning tackler posting 118 last year. Of course it doesn’t bode well when your free safety has that many tackles, but at least he has demonstrated he’s up for the task. If Tech can survive a tough opening part of their schedule they have a chance for a winning record. Mississippi State, Kansas, and conference trips to Boise State and Hawaii all loom in the first 5 weeks of the season. The rest of the slate is much less taxing and if they can steal one of the games just mentioned a bowl bid is a possibility. This much is for certain, Dooley has laid a good foundation, and with the talent rich area around the university, he won’t have to go far to get good recruits to come in.

There may not be a program in the country that could be helped more from a bowl appearance than New Mexico State. The Aggies haven’t been to a bowl since the Eisenhower administration when they were a part of the Border Conference. Now 48 years later they are almost desperate to break the streak and get back to a bowl. Coach Hal Mumme has brought his high powered passing attack with him from Kentucky. The only problem is, is that once they get in the red zone they have a difficult time punching it in. The main culprit has been the lack of a running game. Although they were ranked 35th in that nation in 2007 gaining 423 yards a game, they only averaged 24 points per, which had them ranked 87th. Their 109th ranked rushing game must improve for them to take the next step. Three year starter QB Chase Holbrook should put up some gaudy numbers with a bevy of talented receivers and a solid offensive line in front of him. WR Chris Williams is the star of the group and only needs to 72 receptions to become the WAC’s leading career receiver. The defense returns seven starters and may Mumme’s best unit since he has been in Las Cruces. However, that really isn’t saying much. This unit gave up 30 or more 9 times, 40 or more 6 times, and more than 50 4 times in 2007. The Aggies have not displayed they have the talent or the speed to keep up with some the high powered offenses the WAC is known for. There is hope as the secondary has the potential to slow offenses down, and with new coordinator Joe Lee Dunn’s 3-5-3 scheme, the rest of the league may have trouble exploiting the gadget defense the first time around. Unfortunately for Mumme and the program, 2008 does not look like the year the Aggies will break their bowl drought. If they get better Mumme may still be back in ’09, but most of his offense won’t.

San Jose State, led by Coach Dick Tomey, was a nice surprise in 2006 winning nine games and the inaugural New Mexico Bowl. Expectations may have set a little too high last season and the Spartans couldn’t deliver regressing to 5 wins. Heading into 2008 the offense has the potential to be explosive, especially if they can replace productive two year starter Adam Tafralis at quarterback, and if two-time All-WAC RB Yonus Davis is granted another year of eligibility from the NCAA. Davis hurt his ankle on the first carry of 2007 and missed the season. Even if he does get the extra year there are still questions about his academics, so stay tuned. San Jose State does have maybe the best receiving duo in the WAC in WRs Kevin Jurovich and David Richmond. The two combined for 140 receptions for 2,035 yards and 12 scores in 2007. They will be even more important to the teams’ success this year since a new quarterback will be lining up under center. The defense was mediocre at best last year allowing almost 30 points a game. The loss of All-American CB Dwight Lowery, who was a 4th round pick of the Jets, will be a big blow. They still have one of the best corners in the conference in Chris Owens, but the rest of the secondary is raw and unproven. Offenses won’t have to test Owens to throw the ball. The front seven looks decent but will have to find a replacement for ultra productive MLB Matt Castelo who registered 141 tackles a year ago. The out of conference is not quite as daunting this year and features two winnable games against UC-Davis and San Diego State. Boise State and Fresno State both come to San Jose and if they can knock one of they can return to a bowl for the second time in 3 seasons.

Idaho looks to rewrite their short Division 1 history in 2008, after going a combined 7-28 in their first 3 years in the WAC. They hit rock bottom in 207 posting a 1-11 record and lost all of the 11 games they had against FBS opponents. Second year coach Robb Akey has his entire offense returning, but will need to rebuild a defense that was pretty bad in 2007. The Vandals do have some talent on the offense as QB Nathan Enderle looked promising at times during his freshman year and RB Deonte’ Jackson rushed for 1,175 yards in his first season as well. Like I said before, this side of the ball brings back everyone and could turn a corner and steal a couple games in 2008. The defense looks to replace nine starters, which is not promising because they ranked 110th nationally in points allowed giving up 37 a game. Even if the offense does show improvement they will not win many giving up that much. Akey and defensive coordinator Mark Criner are going to have work some miracles on this side of the ball for Idaho to have a chance at winning a few more games. One thing they do have going for them is Dennis Erickson’s recruiting class from his one year as head coach. Erickson brought in a top WAC class before he bolted to Arizona State and this is the year these guys start to contribute. One player that already has from that class in SS Shiloh Keo. Keo is small for a safety but has good instincts and is a fierce hitter. Idaho should be better in 2008, but then again it’s hard to be worse than 1-11. A soft early schedule that includes Idaho State, Western Michigan, and Utah State provides a chance for a quick start, but they are still a ways away from really competing in the WAC.

Utah State joined the WAC the same season as Idaho and has managed to put up an even worse 6-29 record, including just 3 wins the last 2 years. This has all come under Coach Brent Guy who is starting to feel the heat in Logan. The Aggies are looking to build on the end of last season when they won their last 2 games against WAC foes New Mexico State and Idaho. Maybe this small taste of success will help the players as they head into a make or break season for Guy. Utah State has 15 starters back, but these guys haven’t exactly lit the world on fire either. The offense and defense were both statistically one of the worst in the country, and Logan, Utah isn’t exactly a recruiting hotbed, so the coaches are going to have to get everything they can from the players they have. TE Rob Myers and versatile DT Ben Calderwood are two players worth watching for the Aggies, but much of the rest of the roster is pretty bland. The out of conference is not filled with any FCS teams, as maybe it should be, as UNLV, Oregon, Utah, and BYU are on the slate. Right now it appears the best chance they have for a win will come on September 20th when Idaho comes to town. If the Vandals take them down a winless campaign is more than possible, and Buy will not be back for a fifth season.

Predicted Finish: 1. Boise State
                             2. Fresno State
                             3. Nevada
                             4. Hawaii
                             5. Louisiana Tech
                             6. New Mexico State
                             7. San Jose State
                             8. Idaho
                             9. Utah State


Mountain West Conference Preview

Favorite: BYU

Dark Horse: Utah

Coach on the Hot Seat: Mark Sanford (UNLV)- Not that the UNLV program was ever in the elite in the country, but they also were a solid program, even as late as the turn of the decade when John Robinson was still manning the sidelines. In Sanford’s 3 years in charge, the Runnin’ Rebels have posted a 6-29 record, with the only quality win over that stretch was a 27-0 romp over a solid Utah team last year. He has recruited well, and has pulled in some decent transfers, but he has not been able to lead UNLV to more than two wins in a year. It does take time for a coach to build a program but you do want to see some progression, which they have not shown. Another two win season and the administration will be looking for a new coach.

Best Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (BYU)- When Mendenhall took over the BYU program they were in a position they were not used to, a middle of the road MWC team. It took a season for him to implement his systems and build a new foundation, but the program has restored some of their lost prominence the last two years. The Cougars have put up back-to-back 11-2 records and are primed to be this year’s Hawaii or Boise St., and make a BCS bowl. They have not lost a conference game in two seasons for the first time since 1983-84. He has done a very good job on the recruiting front and will keep this program at the top of the conference for the near future.

Best Program: BYU- Just like an NBA Lottery pick, this is choice is more for potential. Although they have gone 22-4 combined in 2006 and 2007, they recorded a meager 20-27 mark in the 4 years before that. Sixteen consecutive league victories and two straight bowl wins against Oregon in 2006 and UCLA in 2007 have gotten people to pay attention to Provo again. The reason for the potential is the fact that they project to start only 9 seniors. They have a chance at a BCS game this year and they will have most of this team back again in 2009. With their recent success the young guys have gotten the feel of winning and will not accept to lose. They will lose four starters on the offensive line after 2008, but if they can find some replacements, they could be even better next year. Should be the toast of the MWC until further notice.

Top NFL Prospect: G Ray Feinga (BYU)- Feinga blocks out the sun when he steps onto the field. At 6’5” 332, he will have the size to match up well with any defensive lineman at the next level. Feinga plays with a mean streak and is very polished as a run blocker and pass protector. He will have to get used to the quicker defensive tackles at the next level, but he has the smarts to figure it out and get better. Since BYU has done such a good job with offensive lineman over the years you can pedigree to his list of attributes. Has the potential to be a second round pick and make an immediate impact on Sundays next fall.

Newcomer: WR Aiona Key (Utah)- The five star junior college transfer arrives to the Utes to fill an immediate need. If QB Brian Johnson is healthy, Key may be the last piece to push Utah past BYU and win the conference. He is blessed with good size (6’4” 209) and has the quickness to make people miss in the open field. The offense had good stretches in ’07 but was the main culprit in each of their 4 losses scoring a combined 29 points. They only gave up 22 points per game, so it wasn’t as if the defense got rocked in those games and they didn’t have a shot. Key is exactly the type of player that can come in and really jumpstart a team. In Utah’s scheme it wouldn’t surprise me to see Key finish with about 70 catches for over 1,000 yards. His height advantage may lead to a lot of mismatches in goal line situations resulting in some extra scoring opportunities. Keep an eye on Key as the season goes on.

Breakout: QB Brian Johnson (Utah)- When Johnson is healthy and on the field he is one the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country. He runs Utah’s offense just as well as former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith did. The knee and shoulder injuries he has sustained the last two years has really hindered his progress. I have a feeling he will stay on the field in 2008 and be near the top of the nation’s leaders in total offense. Johnson has a chance to put up close to 4,000 total passing and rushing yards and makes the Utes a worthy opponent for Michigan in the season opener. You know Coach Kyle Whittingham has watched the Appalachian State and Oregon tapes from a year ago, hundreds of times, to come up with best way to use Johnson. If they beat Michigan, which is within the realm of possibility, Johnson will be the big reason why and become a more household name.

Five Biggest Games: News Mexico @ BYU (10/11); Utah @ New Mexico (11/1); TCU @ Utah (11/6); BYU @ TCU (11/16); BYU @ Utah (11/22)

Players To Watch: QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga, WR Austin Collie, TE Dennis Pitta, G Ray Feinga, LT Dallas Reynolds, DE Jan Jorgensen, DE Ian Dulan (BYU); QB Brian Johnson, RB Darrell Mack, WR Aiona Key, WR Brent Casteel, DE Paul Kruger, FS Robert Johnson (Utah); QB Andy Dalton RB Aaron Brown, C Blake Schlueter, LT Marshall Newhouse, LB Jason Phillips, SS Stephen Hodge (TCU); QB Donovan Porterie, RB Rodney Ferguson, C Eric Cook, CB DeAndre Wright, CB Glover Quin (New Mexico); TE Travis Dekker, G Nick Charles, DE Ryan Kemp, OLB Hunter Altman (Air Force); QB Karsten Sween, RB Devin Moore, RB Wynel Seldon, DT John Fletcher, MLB Ward Dobbs, FS Quincy Rogers, SS Michael Ray (Wyoming); DT Ernie Lawson, OLB Russell Allen, CB Vonnie Holmes (San Diego State); RB Kyle Bell, TE Kory Sperry, RB Gartrell Johnson III, MLB Jeff Horinek, FS Klint Kubiak (Colorado State); QB Travis Dixon, WR Ryan Wolfe, WR Casey Flair, DT Jacob Hales, CB Quinton Pointer (UNLV)

Conference Overview: The Mountain West was an underrated conference last season. BYU, Utah, New Mexico, TCU, and Air Force were all very good football teams and could’ve played with anyone in the country. They proved this as they went 4-1 in bowl games. Entering 2008 the league doesn’t look quite that strong from top to bottom, but the top 3 teams will be very dangerous.

BYU has owned the MWC the last 2 seasons, running the table against their conference foes both years. The last time they did that Steve Young and Robbie Bosco were lining up under center. Unlike in years past, the defense carried the weight ranking in the top 10 nationally in scoring, rushing, and total defense. The offense was potent, but they also weren’t involved in many shootouts either. Once the Cougars got the lead in 2007 they did not relinquish it. QB Max Hall enters his junior year with huge expectations. A lot of pressure accompanies the starting quarterback job at BYU. The long list of NFL quarterbacks that come out of Provo speaks for itself. Hall will have bruising RB Harvey Unga behind him, all conference selections WR Austin Collie and TE Dennis Pitta running routes, and one of the best offensive lines in the country in front of him. This is potentially a 40 point a game unit. The defense was ravaged by graduations and will return only three starters. The good news is that All-American candidate DE Jan Jorgensen is one of the three. Jorgensen had a monster sophomore season registering 14 sacks. The coaching staff is going to have to develop a new back seven quickly. They travel to Washington and face UCLA in LaVell Edwards Stadium in 2 consecutive weeks in early September. They are going to have to come together fast because if they want to make a BCS bowl they are going to need the defense to play well. Another obstacle in BYU’s way is drawing Utah and TCU on the road. The Utes the Horned Frogs round out the three teams that I mentioned earlier. The rest of the schedule is more than manageable for this team, but it will be difficult to sweep through the conference for a third straight season. At the same it would be a shame if this team goes 11-1 and doesn’t get a BCS nod but a team like Illinois last year does. If the BCS gave teams like this more chances they would be shocked to see how well they play against anyone. It should be an exciting year for Cougar fans.

Quick what program has the longest current bowl winning streak? Give up? How about those Utah Utes. I don’t think many people would have guessed Utah. Even after going undefeated in 2004 under former coach Urban Meyer, the Utes have managed to stay off the radar. The way that they always seem to get off to a bad start may have some influence on that. In 2007 they got off to a 1-3 start before getting on a roll and winning eight of their last nine. QB Brian Johnson going down with a shoulder injury on opening night last year was a big reason for the slow start. Johnson has the potential to get all conference honors and appear on professional scouting lists, but must stay on the field. RB Darrell Mack and WRs Aiona Key and Brent Casteel give Johnson options and will keep defenses on their toes. Utah also always seems to have a good defense. Last year was no different as they ranked in the top 18 in scoring, passing, and total defense. The Utes boast one of the best secondaries in the league and they will need them with all of the pass happy offenses in the Mountain West. They have a golden opportunity to make some noise right away with a season opening trip to The Big House in Ann Arbor. The upset to Appalachian State last year aside, Michigan is primed to be upset in their first game of what is shaping up to be a transitional year, with new coach Rich Rodriguez implementing his systems. Utah plays another solid out of conference team at home in Oregon State, and in conference it appears a trip to New Mexico will be the most difficult. They get TCU and BYU at home, so they are a conference dark horse. If Johnson stays healthy and plays to his potential, the Utes could surprise a lot of people once again.

Earlier I stated that I picked BYU as the best program because of the potential of what they are going to do. If I was just going on the last 5 or 6 years it would have to be TCU. Coach Gary Patterson has guided the Horned Frogs to a 56-18 record since 2002 and has made a bowl every year except 2004. He should field another strong team in Fort Worth in 2008, but doesn’t look to be on the same level as BYU. QB Andy Dalton earned Freshman All-American honors and will have speedy and dangerous RB Rodney Ferguson behind him. The running game should be very good with four offensive linemen returning, but their receiving corps is going to have to be rebuilt. If they want Dalton to continue to develop they are going to have to find him some weapons. They can’t put that much weight on his young shoulders. At TCU the offense comes second. During the Patterson era the Horned Frogs defense has been ranked at the top of the national rankings. MLB Jason Phillips and SS Stephen Hodge spearhead a group that is trying to replace two of the best defensive ends in their history in Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake. Their 4-2-5 alignment causes some team to have fits and can even frustrate the BCS programs. It will be interesting to see how they match-up against Oklahoma when they travel to Norman in late September. TCU opens the season with a big conference game at New Mexico. If they beat the Lobos it will give them an early advantage on everyone else. BYU will travel to Fort Worth but they will travel to Utah for a big game on November 6th. It appears another bowl appearance is a lock but the question is how far the offense can take them.

New Mexico enters 2008 on a high after getting a big win at Arizona and winning their first postseason game since 1961 last year. The Lobos last bowl win before last year’s 23-0 win over Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl was in the 1961 Aviation Bowl. I’ve heard of a lot of different bowl games over the years, but the Aviation Bowl has escaped me until now. However, with 12 starters back, especially at key positions, maybe they have turned a corner and will start competing with the top of the MWC. QB Donovan Porterie and RB Rodney Ferguson may be the best quarterback/running back duo that no one has ever heard of. Porterie threw for over 3,000 yards and 15 scores in 2007, and Ferguson rushed for 1,177 yards and 13 touchdowns. They will have a good set of receivers to help them but will need a rebuilt offensive line to learn quickly and play well for them to repeat last year’s success. The defense was actually one of the best in the nation allowing only 19 points and 320 yards a game. Head Coach Rocky Long welcomes back a very good secondary, headlined by star CB DeAndre Wright, but will need new players to step up in the front six. I say front six because they run a gadget 3-3-5 defense. A majority of the newcomers are veterans who have been in the program for awhile so the hopes are that the transition is not very noticeable. The first four games could be the key to their season. They play their first three games at home but they welcome TCU, Texas A&M, and Arizona to Albuquerque. A trip to very solid Tulsa looms in the fourth week. If the Lobos can win 3 out of these first four they would position themselves nicely to make a bowl that isn’t played in their own stadium. A trip to Provo on October 11th and a home date against Utah three weeks later are the toughest games left on their schedule. If they get hot from the start a 10-win season is not out of the question.

Air Force surprised many in 2007 winning five more games than they did in 2006, which was the third best turnaround in the country. They played so well they earned a second place finish in the Mountain West and first year coach Troy Calhoun was named MWC Coach of the Year Award. It will be difficult to match what AFA did last season with the loss of 14 starters including 2007 MWC Offensive Player of the Year Chad Hall. Hall played everywhere and set the schools all time total yardage mark with 2,683 yards. Judging from what the roster looks like I’m not even sure that two guys can replace that total. The Falcons will also have to find a new quarterback, backfield, and receiving corps. As intricate as the Air Force option offense is, it may take some time for the new players to get the feel during an actual game. They will still average over 200 yards rushing a game since they still will not pass too much. The defense was mediocre in 2007 but do have a veteran defensive line coming back. Ben Garland, Ryan Kemp, and Jared Marvin all have starting experience and have been productive. The linebackers and secondary were also hurt by graduation, and are expecting some young players to step up. CB Reggie Rembert looked like a player in limited action last season and may take a huge step forward. The Falcons defeated Utah and TCU, and went into South Bend and thoroughly whipped the Irish. I understand Notre Dame was absolutely horrible last year but for a program like Air Force to play in Notre Dame Stadium and beat the Irish 41-24 on national television is always huge. Their out of conference is not very taxing with Southern Utah, Houston, Army, and Navy all appearing. They do get Utah and BYU in Colorado Springs, so if they can incorporate the new guys quickly they should get to another bowl.

Wyoming got off to a great start in 2007, sprinting out to a 4-1 mark that included wins over Virginia and TCU. The high hopes were short lived however as the Cowboys lost six of their last seven, and crashed in back-to-back losses to Utah and BYU. They were outscored 85-10 and were thoroughly embarrassed in the game against Utah losing 50-0. Wyoming and Coach Joe Glenn are going to use this as ammunition for 2008. With 15 starters returning, and an underrated defense leading the way, they could surprise and get into the bowl mix. A good complement to a good defense is a good running game. The Cowboys have both. RBs Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon combined for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns and should be even better since they return their line intact. QB Karsten Sween has looked real promising at times but has not developed as some would have thought. He is going to have to step up and cut down on his mistakes and mental breakdowns. The defense was stout all year and was let down by their offense time and time again. Wyoming was 112th in that nation in turnover differential giving it away 12 more times than they caused. The defensive line should be a strong unit and is led by Outland Trophy candidate DT John Fletcher. Defensive coordinator Mike Breske will have to find two new corners but both safeties are all conference material. Sween is going to have to play well, and the receivers will have to step up if Wyoming will make their first bowl since 2004.

Chuck Long enters his third year as the head coach of San Diego State. When he took over he was really starting from scratch and everyone knew they were going to have to be patient. They combined to go 7-17 in 2006 and 2007, but a young team showed signs that they were starting to figure it out in the middle of last year before fading out in the last month. Hopefully in Long’s third year some of these close losses will turn into close wins and they can make their first postseason trip since 1998. This is also the year that his recruits should begin to play better, especially as a unit. They are really going to have to come through on offense. With only four starters returning from a unit that was 76th in scoring and 73rd in total offense, the Aztecs are desperate for some of these young guys to take off. They do have eight guys back on defense but this unit was one of t